This week, the end of Ukraine’s peace summit resulted in two competing proposed plans for peace, but no hope for bringing a peaceful end to Russia’s invasion. In a rare moment of unity, the UN Security Council called on both sides in Sudan’s civil war to end hostilities, while South Africa provided a rare example of a peaceful political shift, as democracy has come under threat worldwide. 

Ukraine’s peace summit makes progress, but politics prevent consensus

Ukraine’s peace summit, hosted in Switzerland this past weekend, resulted in some progress as it brought together a variety of countries in order to find a plan to peacefully end Russia’s invasion. Vladimir Putin released his own peace plan, which would have required Ukraine to commit to never joining NATO, and formally relinquish territories that Russia illegally occupies and claims to have annexed – a plan swiftly rejected by Ukraine and its allies. Any government of a country where full Russian withdrawal is the only peace scenario with widespread support would find itself unable to agree to a plan that would legitimize Russian occupation. The peace summit resulted in a proposal endorsed by over 80 countries, calling for dialogue with Russia, placing the responsibility for the war on Russia’s aggression, and calling for the release of prisoners and abducted Ukrainian children. Not every nation in attendance signed on, however, some of which have ties to Russia or objected to its absence. China and Brazil refused to attend entirely because of the lack of Russian presence. Zelensky stated that his plan was for a subsequent summit to result in a peace plan that could be presented to Russia. However, with Russia’s determination to continue its war (which routinely targets Ukrainian civilian infrastructure), Ukraine finally receiving much-needed American aid, and the inconsistent support for peace from the international community, all make the chances for a negotiated, just peace remote. 

UN Security Council comes together to call for peace in Sudan 

Recently, the UN Security Council has been consumed by politics, but the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe caused by the civil war in Sudan has led to the principle five members finding rare agreement. In a change from the usual political fights over Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine or Israel’s war on Gaza, the UNSC issued a resolution calling on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, who have been fighting Sudan’s army for power for over a year, to end their assault on a crucial city in Darfur. The war, a struggle for power between two powerful generals who have played a leading role in Sudan’s government – and numerous human rights abuses – for decades, has left millions displaced and tens of thousands dead or injured. The city of El Fasher, home to around 1.5 million people and the capital of North Darfur, faces growing pressure from the RSF, which was formed out of militias which carried out atrocities in Darfur in the early 2000s. The Security Council passed a resolution 14-0 (only Russia abstained, amid accusations that the Wagner Group has backed the RSF) calling on the group to end its attack on the city, citing the dire humanitarian situation and the threat of further atrocities. While the RSF is unlikely to comply, and international actors have backed both sides despite UN sanctions, this resolution was an important step in engaging the international community and global awareness of the humanitarian crisis facing the Sudanese people. 

South Africa’s election results in a peaceful – and massive – political shift 
For the first time since the end of apartheid, the African National Congress (ANC) party did not win a majority of votes in South Africa. Unable to form a majority on its own, the ANC chose to form a coalition unity government with two opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance party, which won around 22% of votes, and the smaller Inkatha Freedom Parties. The three parties differ in their political orientation and voter bases, but their choice to work together in a unity government is a positive sign, the peaceful transition after decades of what was essentially one-party rule is an important example at a time when democracy appears increasingly fragile worldwide. Like Nelson Mandela did in the first free elections in South Africa’s history, the ANC chose to invite all parties to form a unity government, although two parties, the hardline leftist Economic Freedom Front and a new party founded by former President Jacob Zuma, who resigned after corruption scandals, refused to join. The ANC’s outreach is significant as it provides an example of a peaceful political transition from years of one-party rule, with a previously hegemonic political party accepting the will of the voters and choosing cooperation, instead of repression. South Africa’s peaceful democracy will continue, and in many ways has been strengthened by the ruling party’s choice to prioritize peace.

This week, despite a UN Security Council resolution and considerable global pressure, Israel and Hamas still failed to agree on a ceasefire agreement. Armenia and Azerbaijan edge closer to a historic peace deal, while Kosovo marked 25 years without war, despite an imperfect peace.

Still no ceasefire in Gaza, despite global pressure

Despite weeks of negotiations, there is still no progress on finding a ceasefire to pause and then end the war in Gaza. An offer is on the table that was developed and proposed by Israel, which is nearly identical to an offer made by Hamas earlier this year. The Israeli unity government has fallen apart over a lack of postwar plans, while Qatar has put pressure on Hamas to accept a deal if its leaders want to remain in the country. The UN Security Council passed a resolution calling on both sides to adopt the current framework, with nearly every member voting in favor (Russia abstained). In recent talks in Qatar, Hamas apparently countered with demands that the US Secretary of State called “not workable”, although talks continue with the US, Egypt, and Qatar working as mediators. Israeli officials and politicians have also been lukewarm at best to the proposed deal, insisting that they believe Hamas can be defeated through military means and resisting any pressure to consider accepting a permanent end to the war. As Palestinian civilians continue to suffer, and the international community has found rare consensus on a ceasefire proposal, it is crucial that the fighting in Gaza ends. Israel’s recent hostage rescue operation in Gaza, which killed over 200 Palestinians, including many civilians, illustrated the need to stop the war, protect the Palestinains caught in the crossfire, and work towards a peaceful resolution of the wider conflict. 

Armenia and Azerbaijan

Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to negotiate on the potential terms of what would be a historic peace deal. Since we reported on this issue a few weeks ago, a deal has still not been finalized, but, according to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, a final agreement is close. Areas of disagreement remain, including Azerbaijan’s recent demand that Armenia change its constitution and frequent protests in Armenia against the deal and the handover of four border villages to Azerbaijan. Pashinyan’s optimism despite those obstacles is a positive sign, as is the ongoing direct dialogue between the two states. If a peace treaty can be negotiated, it could bring a new era of peace to the region and prevent further fighting between the two states. The two countries have been at odds for decades and fought several wars, but changing international dynamics and a shift in the regional balance of power have pushed Pashinyan to engage in peace talks. A final agreement would end one of the longest post-Soviet conflicts, and prevent another war.

25 years of peace in Kosovo

25 years ago this week, Serbia withdrew from Kosovo following a NATO bombing campaign, ending decades of repression and bringing a close to the brutal and destructive wars that followed the breakup of Yugoslavia. Since then, the Balkans have experienced decades of peace and economic growth, as most post-Yugoslav states have joined the European Union. While over 100 countries recognize Kosovo as an independent state, its acceptance into key international institutions including the UN, the EU, and NATO, remains blocked. Despite occasional outbreaks of violence and ongoing tension with Serbia, whose president, Alexander Vucic, has grown closer to Russia and made provocative statements about Kosovo and the Serb political entity that makes up Bosnia & Herzegovina. Kosovo’s international recognition is prevented by a small but powerful group of countries, most notably Russia and China, but also members of the EU and NATO including Spain and Greece. Regardless of its international status, the NATO intervention, and subsequent peacekeeping force, have ensured peace in Kosovo and the wider Balkans for decades. It is crucial that the existing peace be maintained, as peace in Europe appears increasingly fragile amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.