Surrounded by countries in conflict, Sudan is often simplified into an “Arab” and Muslim north and an “African” and Christian/Animist south, but in reality is much more complex, with a variety of ethnic groups and competing political parties. Since gaining independence from the UK in 1956, the persistent domination of the capital Khartoum over the marginalized peripheries has caused tension. The political elites from the North have constantly competed for power, leading to unstable parliamentary governments and military regimes. President al-Bashir gained control in 1989 after a military coup and has ruled since, being re-elected in 2015 in controversial elections, and has been indicted by the ICC. Plagued by rebellions, the government of Sudan has a history of arming militias, who are infamous for their gross violations of human rights, as a response to conflict. Further contributing to the complexities of the intrastate conflicts is the support of rebels by foreign powers: Uganda, Eritrea, Chad and Libya have all been indicated in their support of rebellions.
One of the longest conflicts began in 1983 when the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) rebelled, fighting until a Comprehensive Peace Agreement was concluded in 2005. Conflict over governmental power continued, however, with several other rebellions, and while the majority of the fighting initially took place in the southern part of Sudan, after 2003 the fighting has mostly been located in the Darfur region in the west. The fighting between the government and several alliances of rebel groups in Darfur, the Blue Nile, and South Kordofan originates from grievances within the affected regions but can also be seen as a proxy war between Sudan and South Sudan (which gained independence after a referendum in 2011). The situation in Darfur has been viewed as one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes in the world with debates over the term ‘genocide’ being discussed. In 2015, attacks were carried out on peacekeepers in The African Union-United Nations Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) and the UN has criticized the government for providing “limited cooperation”.
In April 2019, Al-Bashir, who had been in control for about 30 years, was overthrown by the military and a transitional government took power. Violence and protests arose in response to the actions of this new military government. In August 2019, with the aid of the African Union, both military and civilian groups agreed to a three-year transitional government under a new constitutional declaration.
Military leaders with roles in the new government staged a coup d’etat in October 2021 which overthrew civilian involvement in the transitional government and ended efforts for a democratic transformation.
In April of 2023, fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. The two had collaborated in the overthrow of Bashir and the subsequent 2021 coup, but tensions between the two groups had progressively grown and then turned into open conflict. The RSF are the successors of the Janjaweed militias known for committing crimes against humanity in Darfur in the early 2000s.
Fighting continues between the two groups, concentrated on Khartoum, and there is a growing humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Millions of people have been displaced by the conflict, and civilians have been caught in the crossfire. There is increasing concern about the risk of further atrocities in Darfur, and of the outbreak of ethnic conflict throughout the country.
Peace attempts:
Sudan has suffered almost constant conflict, with different rebel groups consistently fighting against a volatile government, and while there have been a number of peace agreements, most have been broken or splinter groups have emerged to continue fighting.
The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the government and SPLM/A was three years in the making and set the 2011 referendum for southern independence. However, peace talks between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-North (SPLM/A-North) and the government in Khartoum over autonomy of the states of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile have recently failed and the violence is at war level.
Several other partial peace agreements have been made over the years between the government and opposition groups, including the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Minni Minnawi’s SLM/MM group, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), later the splinter JEM Bashar group, and the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), most with very limited success.
On October 3, 2022, the Juba Peace Agreement was signed between Sudan’s transitional government and several armed groups in an attempt to combat the ongoing conflict in areas such as South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur. Yet, the lack of local inclusion and ongoing corruption within the transitional government is impeding peace processes.
Peace has proved elusive after the outbreak of the newest conflict in Sudan. Peace talks in Jeddah brokered by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. fell apart without any consensus reached. The RSF has released a peace plan calling for an end to the conflict, but it has been accused of carrying out atrocities and deliberately targeting civilians at the same time. The African Union and a group of East African states led by Kenya are also attempting to mediate a peace deal. While there is some optimism that the Kenyan-led initiative might result in the resumption of talks, peace remains elusive and fighting between the SAF and the RSF continues throughout Sudan.
