Armenia/Azerbaijan
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is rooted in a dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. When both countries were part of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnically Armenian enclave, was granted autonomous status within Soviet Azerbaijan. Ethnic tensions continued, eventually culminating in violence and a full-scale war in the 1990s. In 1988, the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh was proclaimed in the region, with full-scale fighting escalating in 1992. In 1994, a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia brought an end to the fighting, with Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territory under Armenian control.
Although the ceasefire held, sporadic clashes continued, as multiple peace initiatives failed to find a lasting solution. In September 2020, the longstanding dispute reignited when Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to regain control of territories lost in the early 1990s. The fighting resulted in significant casualties and widespread destruction. Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of violating international norms, including the targeting of civilians. Both sides received outside support, with Turkish drones turning the tide in favor of Azerbaijan.
After weeks of intense fighting, a ceasefire agreement was brokered by Russia in November 2020. The trilateral agreement involved Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia and established a Russian peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh. The agreement also stipulated the exchange of prisoners of war and the return of displaced populations to their homes. The ceasefire effectively halted the fighting, but it did not address the root causes of the conflict. A recent blockade of the disputed territory by Azerbaijan increased tensions and civilian suffering. In 2023, Azerbaijan launched a brief military offensive into the territory, which ended with a ceasefire and an apparent victory over the separatist government.
Peace efforts:
Since the first war, a number of successive ceasefires have failed to end the conflict for good. Complicating the matter is the ethnic nature of the conflict, its long history, and the involvement of foreign actors, with Türkiye backing Azerbaijan and Russia backing Armenia. Past conflicts have displaced many civilians and have caused significant suffering on both sides. Landmines continue to be an issue in Nagorno-Karabakh, which increases the risk of civilian suffering. The long-running conflict has increased ethnic tensions on each side, and peace is necessary for reconciliation to take place between the citizens of the two neighboring states. Russia played a major role in enforcing ceasefires in 1994 and 2020, but due to its own invasion of Ukraine it was unable or unwilling to intervene in the latest conflict. The current situation may lead to a final resolution of the conflict, as Armenia refrained from becoming involved, and the Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh surrendered rather than escalate the conflict. The post-conflict situation remains to be seen, but the era of outright military confrontation over Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be over. Many of the Armenian inhabitants of the region have fled for Armenia, while those that remain fear future ethnic cleansing, even as Azerbaijan has promised a peaceful integration. The situation continues to develop, and urgent action is needed to alleviate a potential humanitarian crisis and ensure reconciliation and peace for those living in the region.
In 2024 and 2025, diplomatic progress began to take shape. Armenia agreed to return four border villages to Azerbaijan as part of ongoing border demarcation efforts, signaling cautious steps toward normalization. By March 2025, both sides announced they had finalized the text of a comprehensive peace treaty intended to end nearly forty years of conflict. In August 2025, the two governments signed a joint declaration in Washington, D.C., symbolizing a significant breakthrough toward normalizing relations and setting a framework for lasting peace. The proposed deal includes renewed economic and transport links, including the reopening of trade routes and discussions surrounding the Zangezur corridor connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory. While optimism has grown, tensions persist over constitutional issues, border demarcation, and the future of displaced Armenians who fled Nagorno-Karabakh after the 2023 offensive. The humanitarian situation remains delicate, with international organizations urging both parties to ensure the protection of civilians and to foster conditions for safe return and reconciliation. Despite lingering mistrust, these latest developments mark the closest the two nations have come in decades to achieving a permanent and comprehensive peace.
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