Philippines

The Philippines has experienced numerous threats to peace since its independence from the United States in 1945. Numerous insurgencies, state violence under Ferdinand Marcos and Rodrigo Duterte, and territorial disputes in the South China sea have all threatened peace in the country

Ferdinand Marcos was elected president of the Philippines in 1965. Marcos declared martial law in 1972, and would rule as a dictator for another 14 years. During his rule, thousands of opponents, including politicians, journalists, and activists were murdered, detained, and tortured, with thousands more forcibly disappeared. Independent journalism was shut down by the regime, Martial law finally ended in 1981, when Marcos won an election that was boycotted by the opposition. Marcos is known as one of the worst kleptocrats in history, he and his family stole billions during their time in power. In 1983, Benigno Aquino Jr., the most prominent opposition politician, was assassinated at Manila’s international airport. Marcos was overthrown in the 1986 People Power Revolution, a nonviolent mass protest movement. Aquino’s widow, Corazon Aquino, became president, and the Marcos family fled the country. There were numerous coup attempts against Aquino, but the extreme repression of the Marcos years ended.

Beginning in 1969, the New People’s Army (NPA), affiliated with the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), began an armed rebellion against the Marcos government. Fighting the CPP was one of the reasons Marcos gave for imposing martial law, although he failed to defeat the insurgency. As the conflict continued, a number of splinter groups broke away from the NPA. While some of them have negotiated peace with the government, Communist guerillas remain active throughout the Philippines. The insurgency does not pose a widespread threat to the stability of the country, and there have been promising steps towards peace talks between the government and the remaining active groups.

During Marcos’ first term, amid a large military expansion, a massacre of Moro army recruits (the Moro are an Muslim-majority ethnic group) began a long-running conflict between the government and Moro separatist groups. These groups, most notably the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), continued to fight the central government after the fall of the Marcos regime. Moro insurgents had fought the Spanish and American colonial governments, and the Japanese during WWII. The MNLF signed a peace deal in 1996, but the MILF continued to fight until 2014, ending decades of conflict.

In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte was elected president of the Philippines. Duterte was the longtime mayor of Davao City, where he was linked with a death squad that targeted drug users and criminals. He came into office promising to crack down on crime, especially drug-related crime. He urged police and citizens to carry out extrajudicial executions of suspected criminals and drug dealers, and thousands were killed by police and armed vigilantes, including children and activists. Since 2016, jihadist groups linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda have established themselves on the Muslim-majority island of Mindanao. An Islamic State-affiliated group took over the city of Marawi in 2017. They were only defeated after a destructive five-month siege by the military.

Duterte’s successor, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, is the son of the former dictator, and has openly praised his father’s regime, raising questions about his commitment to democracy.
While the country is not currently engaged in conflict; there are fears that tensions with China in the South China Sea could lead to one in the future. The area is home to a number of overlapping territorial claims by various states, and China claims much of it as its own territory. It has aggressively occupied shoals and islands in international waters, artificially expanding them and creating sites suitable for military use. The Chinese coast guard patrols areas far outside of China’s internationally recognized territorial waters, often clashing with Filipino ships and fishermen. Chinese fishing vessels often fish in internationally recognized Filipino waters, and the region has become increasingly militarized. There are fears that aggressive Chinese action could provoke a wider conflict; which could involve the United States (an ally of the Philippines) and other regional actors with claims or interests in the South China Sea.

Peace attempts

There have been some positive signs that a peaceful solution is possible with the communist rebels, who continue to wage a low-level insurgency against the government, which has been ongoing for over 50 years. Many of the groups that broke away from the NPA have either surrendered or engaged in peace negotiations with the government that ended a great deal of violence. Moro separatist groups have also negotiated with the governments, with both the MNLF and MILF agreeing to a ceasefire. A Muslim-majority autonomous region has been established, with a transition period due to end in 2025. Continued negotiation with the NPA, and autonomy for Muslims in the South, will address the remaining insurgent violence, and hopefully lead to the end of civil conflict in the Philippines.

The South China Sea territorial disputes remain the greatest threat to peace in the region. The patchwork of overlapping claims, and increasing militarization of the region, has raised fears of an international conflict. An international court has ruled in the favor of the Philippines with regards to disputes in the South China Sea; but China has disregarded this ruling. It continues to aggressively militarize and artificially enlarge islands and shoals throughout the area, and harass Filipino vessels. A diplomatic solution is necessary to avoid a destructive conflict, but is unlikely given the firm belief of China that the territory is rightfully theirs, and their past unwillingness to compromise or agree to rulings by international legal entities. Competing claims by Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei, along with the presence of potential oil and gas deposits, further complicate the issue.