Brazil

In 1964, leftwing Brazilian President João Goulart was overthrown in a military coup, replaced by a repressive military dictatorship. Freedom of speech and political dissent were severely curtailed. Censorship was widespread, and the regime attempted to control all forms of political expression. Political dissidents were arrested and imprisoned, and thousands, including future president Dilma Rousseff subjected to systematic torture. Since the end of the dictatorship, Brazil has faced two major threats to peace – violence by organized crime groups and political polarization. The Amazon rainforest has also faced numerous threats, as deforestation spiked during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022). As climate change and conflict become more and more interlinked, these actions raise the risk of potential climate-related violence around the world. Environmentalists and indigenous Brazilians have faced increased violence as a result, with many killed.

Since the 1980s, organized crime groups in Brazil have gained considerable power, especially in favelas, unplanned and informal neighborhoods within major cities. The two largest drug gangs, the First Capital Command (PCC) and Red Command (CV) (which began as a left-wing militant group opposed to the dictatorship) originated in prisons, and now control significant territory within favelas. In 2006, the PCC attacked police and justice facilities across the state of São Paulo, and in 2023 members were accused of planning terror attacks against high-profile current and former government officials. Fighting between rival gangs is responsible for a great deal of violence in Brazil, although a long unofficial truce between the PCC and CV helped to reduce it somewhat. The state response has further increased violence, instead of reducing it. The Brazilian police have become increasingly militarized, especially in favelas. Mano dura policies have failed to reduce crime and violence, but still remain favored by some government officials.

Bolsonaro and his political allies called for a more aggressive and militarized police response to gang violence, and civilians were inevitably caught in the crossfire, even as homicides did slightly decrease. Further complicating the situation are militias, often made up of current and former police officers, which have taken over some favelas and sometimes engage in the same extortion and drug trafficking as the criminal gangs they oppose. Attempts to address the problem in different ways, such as Police Pacification Units (UPPs), which tried to combine mano dura policing and social programs, had initial success but have not led to long-term success and a reduction in violence. The current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was also president from 2003-2010, campaigned on a break from the harsh policies of the Bolsonaro era, but the militarization of the fight against crime has continued, with the military deployed to ports and airports in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo in 2023. In October of 2023, after a paramilitary leader was killed by police, militias in Rio de Janeiro lit buses, trucks, and a train on fire across the city.

Political polarization in Brazil has also become a threat to peace. In 2018, Bolsonaro was stabbed at a campaign rally. Throughout his presidency, he praised the military dictatorship, promoted violent rhetoric against his political opponents, and presided over a dramatic increase in political violence during the 2022 election. There was also concern over actions taken by some police officers during the second round of the election, where some voters were prevented from accessing the polls in areas. Following Bosonaro’s loss, which he refused to acknowledge, his supporters blocked roads across the country, and on January 9th, 2023, they attacked federal government buildings in Brazilia, including Brazil’s congress and the presidential palace. Their intent was to disrupt the transition of power and provoke a military coup, both of which failed. Bolsonaro has been disqualified from running in the 2026 election, however Brazil remains polarized, and there is the possibility for further political violence to occur.