Ecuador

For much of the 20th century, Ecuador was one of the more peaceful countries in Latin America. A military regime took power following a 1972 coup, but democracy returned in 1979, with subsequent consistent transfers of power. A border dispute with Peru led to some conflict, including a 1981 skirmish and the 1995 Cenepa war, but Ecuador has generally had peaceful relations with its leaders. Ecuador has experienced considerable political and economic instability in the 21st century. In 2000, a coup overthrew President Jamil Muhaud, amid an economic crisis and widespread protests by indigenous groups. However, senior members of the military prevented the installation of another military regime, and Vice President Gustavo Noboa became president instead. Rafael Correa, elected president in 2006, governed until 2017, credited both with sustained economic growth and consolidating power in a way many saw as authoritarian. Correa’s three terms saw a shift to the left, a new constitution, tensions with Colombia over the presence of FARC in Ecuador, and disputes with indigenous Ecuadorians over oil concessions granted to Chinese companies on their territory. In 2010, striking National Police officers blocked highways, took over airports, and attacked and detained Correa when he spoke at their headquarters. Correa was rescued by the military and the crisis ended soon after.

Correa’s successor, his Vice President Lenin Moreno, broke with his leftist policies. During his term, insecurity became a major issue for Ecuador. In 2019, the end of fuel subsidies as part of an IMF package led to a massive protest movement against his government. Moreno was forced to move the government to the city of Guayaquil when protestors overran and briefly occupied the parliament and presidential palace. He blamed Correa and Venezuelan’s authoritarian president Nicholas Maduro for the unrest, which both denied. The state’s response to the protests was violent, and the country was essentially paralyzed during the protests. A rise in crime, driven by the growth in power of gangs involved in drug trafficking, has led to Ecuador’s prisons becoming overcrowded. In 2021, a massacre in a Guayaquil prison left over 100 inmates dead as rival gangs fought for power. Moreno’s successor, Guillermo Lasso, presided over a continuing increase in crime. During the 2023 election, Fernando Villavicencio, a legislator running on an anti-corruption platform, was assassinated. Villavicencio, who had faced exile and legal jeopardy resultign from his reporting on corruption in Correa’s administration, had made combating the violence and corruption associated with growing drug trafficking a priority.

2023 and 2024 saw an escalation of insecurity in Ecuador. Villavicencio’s assassination came amid increasing political violence, and he had received threats from many of the criminal organizations he criticized. Six men arrested and charged in relation to the killing were later assassinated in prison. Ecuador’s overcrowded prisons have become both the sites of frequent massacres and the headquarters for gangs, whose leaders continue to issue orders from behind bars. In September 2023, gangs carried out violent attacks throughout the country, taking hostages within prisons, destroying a bridge, and using car bombs. In January 2024, a leading gang leader escaped before he was due to be transferred to a different prison. Unprecedented violence broke out throughout Ecuador as a result. Another prominent criminal leader escaped prison, and there were reports of explosions in Guayaquil, Quito, and other cities, and of prison guards being taken hostage. Armed men stormed a television station in Guayaquil live on air, which was broadcast around the world. Noboa declared a state of emergency, announced that Ecuador was in a state of “internal conflict” and deployed the military to fight gangs, naming 22 of them as “terrorist organizations.” The gangs declared war on the government in return, and announced their own curfew in Guayaquil. 2023 was already the most violent year in Ecuador’s history, driven by the increasingly violent tactics of gangs allied with other international criminal groups, including Mexican cartels and former Colombian guerillas. The coordinated and highly visible attacks in 2024, and the forceful state response, seems to indicate that the trend will continue, with worrying consequences for the stability of the country.