Serbia and Kosovo

Serbia and Kosovo, two neighboring Balkan states, have an extremely tense relationship which has raised fears of a new conflict in Eastern Europe. Kosovo is a former province of Serbia, and both were part of Yugoslavia before its breakup in the 1990s. Kosovo is majority Albanian and Muslim, although it does have a Christian Serb minority. Ethnic tensions had erupted into violence in the early 20th century, and following World War II both states became part of the new Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, with Kosovo as an autonomous province of Serbia. Despite the federal nature of this new state, ethnic tensions remained. Following the death of longtime dictator Josip Broz Tito, and the fall of other Communist regimes in Eastern Europe, the Yugoslav economy collapsed and Albanians in Kosovo began to advocate for greater autonomy. In the late 1980s, Slobodan Milošević came to power in Serbia, taking a hard line on Serbia and leading a nationalist takeover of Serbian local governments. Following the victory of nationalist candidates in the first multiparty elections in the different Yugoslav republics, Milošević rejected calls to increase the autonomy of the individual republics and create a loose federation. In referendums in Slovenia and Croatia, in late 1990 and early 1991 respectively, voters overwhelmingly called for independence. On 25 June 1991, both declared their independence, beginning the Yugoslav Wars. The most destructive of these conflicts took place in Croatia and what is now Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Milošević supported ethnic Serb forces in both conflicts, but Serbia did not become directly involved. Those forces carried out numerous atrocities as part of ethnic cleansing campaigns that many scholars believe rose to the level of genocide, especially the Srebrenica massacre in 1995. Kosovo was not covered in the Dayton Agreement of 1995, which ended the Yugoslav wars.The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) began to carry out attacks against Serb forces, and in 1998 began occupying territory within Kosovo. Serbian forces responded in a campaign with a high rate of civilian casualties. Amid increasing international concern over a repeat of the atrocities committed in Bosnia and Croatia, NATO threatened military intervention, and the two sides agreed to meet at a peace conference in France, which resulted in the Rambouillet Agreement. That agreement would have led to an autonomous Kosovo with a NATO peacekeeping force deployed for three years, after which a permanent solution would be found based on a referendum held in Kosovo. Milošević rejected this deal, and a NATO bombing campaign began in March of 1999. In June of 1999, the war ended with the Kumanovo Agreement, which provided for an autonomous Kosovo with a peacekeeping force known as KFOR, made up mostly of NATO and Russian troops.

In 2008, Kosovo declared its independence, which the government of Serbia strongly opposed. Tensions remain high, and despite some positive diplomatic developments, events in the 2010s and early 2020s have prevented full reconciliation between the two. The Serbian government of Alexandar Vucic, a nationalist who had served as a minister under Milošević, retains close ties with the Serb government of the northern regions of Kosovo. Following a number of high-profile economic disputes and some small-scale clashes, armed violence broke out in 2023, raising fears of another full-scale war. Serb paramilitaries attacked a Kosovar police patrol, and then fled to a monastery near the border with Serbia. The ensuing siege by Kosovar security forces led to further casualties, and there are suspicions that the attackers were linked to the Serbian military or intelligence agencies. Following the attack, Serbia began a military buildup on the border with Kosovo, raising fears of future conflict. KFOR, now mostly made up of NATO and EU members, remains in Kosovo, and any future conflict has the potential to escalate rapidly.

Peace attempts

Serbia still does not recognize Kosovo as an independent state, and KFOR peacekeepers remain in Kosovo as of 2023. The agreement that ended the 1998-1999 war led to the end of open hostilities between both governments, but peaceful relations remain a distant prospect at the moment. Following Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence, Serbia would not diplomatically engage directly with the new state. The European Union has been active in mediating between the two, resolving the issue is necessary for either to become an EU member state in the future. The 2013 Brussels Agreement resulted in the normalization of ties between the two countries, although Serbia was not obligated to formally recognize Kosovo. The agreement included provisions to integrate Serb-majority regions in Kosovo into the Kosovar legal system, with provisions to maintain some local autonomy. Both states agreed to not interfere with each other’s EU accession process.

Relations remained tense despite the Brussels Agreement and the establishment of the Community of Serb Municipalities. There were a number of small-scale incidents which made continued reconciliation and negotiations difficult and unproductive. Progress finally came in 2020 with the US-mediated Washington Agreement, in which both sides agreed to normalize economic relations. Border crossings were opened, and flights began between Belgrade and Pristina. Despite the failure to make any further progress, these two Agreements are signs that diplomacy can be effective in building ties between the two neighbors, and future negotiations may result in real progress towards a peaceful resolution of this dispute.

EU membership for both appears unlikely in the near future. Kosovo faces opposition from some current members, most notably Greece and Spain, which is influenced by its own domestic separatist movements in Catalonia and the Basque regions. Under Vucic, Serbia has experienced significant democratic backsliding, and has taken an ambiguous position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The EU has played a positive role as a mediator, and has been extraordinarily effective in preventing conflict between its member states. Membership for both states would have enormous economic benefits and help to build peace and reconciliation.