Moldova is the classic example of a frozen conflict. The majority of Moldovans speak Romanian, although there is a Russian-speaking minority, mostly in the region of Transnistria. Moldova became part of the Soviet Union in 1940, when it was occupied by the Red Army as a provision of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany. As the Soviet Union collapsed, Moldova’s regional government became more nationalist, refusing to grant autonomy to two regions, Transnistria and Gaugazia, populated by ethnic minorities, including Russians and Russian-speakers. Moldova became independent in 1991, and the Transnistrian authorities quickly declared their own independence, beginning an armed rebellion.
The ensuing war ended in a stalemate, with Russian troops intervening to prevent a Moldovan victory. Russian troops still remain in the disputed territory, which has a large Russian speaking population. Since then, the dispute has become one of the most notable frozen conflicts. Transnisyria remains unrecognized by most countries, and is seen internationally as Moldovan territory. As Moldova has grown closer to the west, tensions continue over the future status of the territory. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised fears of future conflict, there were concerns that Russian troops in Transnistria would be used to attack Ukraine, or that Russia would launch another war against Moldova, which could lead to open conflict with the EU or NATO. In 2023, Putin revoked a decree that stated Russia’s commitment to Moldova’s sovereignty, another sign that a future conflict over the territory remains possible.
Peace attempts
Peace appears unlikely at the moment, especially while Russia’s war in Ukraine continues. Vladimir Putin’s regime has shown a willingness to violate international law and annex territory, having invaded both Ukraine and Georgia, and if the war in Ukraine ends with a Russian victory, or at least the annexation of further territory; there could be risk of further conflict and wars of aggression. Given that the territory is de-facto occupied by Russia, any peace process is in Moscow’s hands, and given the increasing tensions with the EU and NATO, and the fact that Moldova has grown much closer with both in recent years, a permanent solution appears unlikely at the moment. Given that similar self-declared breakaway republics in Georgia and Ukraine have been used as the pretext for invasions of sovereign states with the aim of annexing territory and “protecting” Russian speakers, there is a very real danger of the same occurring unless a peaceful resolution can be found.
