Western Sahara
The disputed territory of Western Sahara has experienced decades of conflict between Morocco, which claims the region as part of its territory, and Sahrawi nationalist groups, who want to establish an independent state. The region was a Spanish colony from 1884 until 1975, known as Spanish Sahara. After decades of international pressure, especially from Morocco and Mauritania, Spain withdrew during the last years of the Francoist regime in 1975, and the territory was almost immediately occupied by Morocco and Mauritania, in contravention of an advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice which determined that the territory should have the right to self-determination. The Polisario Front, a Sahrawi nationalist organization, proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in 1976. Despite French intervention in 1977, Mauritania faced increasing pressure from the Polisario Front, and withdrew in 1979 following a military coup.
Morocco continues to occupy the territory, and has encouraged settlers to move to the territory, echoing actions taken by Israel in the West Bank and by Turkey in Northern Cyprus. Morocco’s invasion and annexation displaced thousands of Sahrawis, many of whom live in refugee camps in Algeria, where the Polisario Front is headquartered. In the 1980s, as the conflict continued, Morocco began construction of a sand wall and minefield, to protect its occupied territory from Polisario attacks. The war settled into a stalemate, and the UN and the Organization of African Unity (OAU) (the precursor of the African union) helped negotiate a ceasefire, which would last from 1991 until 2020.
In 2020, clashes between the Polisario Front and Morocco broke out once again, amid the escalating tensions between Algeria and Morocco. T Two significant incidents where Moroccan strikes killed Algerians in the Polisario-controlled zone have led to diplomatic tensions increasing, and threatened to worsen the conflict. While Morocco’s military superiority, the effectiveness of the sand wall, and Algeria’s current refusal to arm or otherwise materially support the Polisario front have limited the conflict, there still remains the potential for escalation, which could further destabilize the region and prevent a revival of the peace process.
Peace attempts
The most significant attempt at finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict is known as the Settlement Plan. Accepted in 1988 by both sides, it resulted in a ceasefire beginning in 1991. The agreement was intended to result in a referendum which would determine the future status of the territory. A number of factors, including disputes over who qualified as voters, Morocco moving tens of thousands of potential participants into the territory, prevented the referendum from taking place, and the UN suspended the plan in 1998. Former US Secretary of State James Baker was appointed as a UN special envoy, and developed 2 plans to resolve the conflict. The first would have resulted in an autonomous Western Sahara within Morocco, with control over its own affairs besides defense and foreign policy. The Polisario front rejected this plan, which had been strongly supported by Morocco. The second would have entailed five years of self-rule, followed by a referendum on the future status of the territory, which was rejected by Morocco. Baker resigned soon after, and there has been no further major efforts by the international community to address the issue.
In 2020, the US under the Trump Administration became the first country to recognize Western Sahara as part of Morocco, in exchange for Moroccan recognition of Israel, which later recognized Morocco’s claim in return. Spain would later come out in support of Morocco’s proposal for Saharan autonomy, and a number of states have opened consulates in the territory. However, there has been little diplomatic progress on reaching a direct agreement between the Polisario Front and Morocco, which has been further complicated by the resumption of military hostilities. The US, which under the Biden Administration has become one of the few actors with relationships with all three involved parties (Morocco, the SADR and Algeria) could play a mediating role, helping to restart the peace process and pressuring both sides to work towards a ceasefire.
