Russia

Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has been involved in a number of conflicts, both internal and external. Since 1992, Russian troops have been present in the unrecognized breakaway republic of Transnistria, which declared its independence following a brief war with Moldova. In 1993, Russian President Boris Yeltsin used the military to resolve a constitutional dispute in what has been called a self-coup. That same year, Chechnya declared independence from Russia, and war broke out within the region. A Russian invasion followed in 1994, with fighting lasting until a ceasefire in 1996. The war killed tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians, and the Chechen capital of Grozny was devastated by Russian bombing and shelling. In 1999, hundreds of Russians were killed in apartment bombings, which were blamed on Chechen extremists despite widespread claims that the Russian security services were responsible. Prime Minister (later President) Vladimir Putin led Russia into the Second Chechen War that same year. Once again, tens of thousands of civilians are estimated to have been killed, and Grozny was heavily bombarded and most of its infrastructure and housing was destroyed. In 2000, Chechnya was incorporated into Russia, later becoming an autonomous region. Chechen insurgents continued to fight until 2009. Two high profile hostage-takings carried out by Chechen terrorists at a theater in Moscow and a school in Beslan. led to hundreds of civilian deaths, with many killed in the crossfire as security forces stormed both locations.

In 2008, Russia began a brief war with Georgia, following fighting in the disputed regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The war, which involved extensive bombing and cyberattacks on Georgian targets, ended with a quick Russian victory. Russia became the only country to recognize the two regions as independent states, and maintains a heavy military presence in both. The 2012 elections, won by Vladimir Putin and his United Russia party, were widely seen as rigged, and provoked large-scale protests. Under Putin, Russia has seen a marked decline in freedom of expression and press freedom. Beginning in 2015, Russia intervened in the Syrian Civil War, fighting the Islamic State but also opponents of Bashar al-Assad in a campaign that often targeted civilian areas.

Russian “hybrid warfare” has become common over the past decade, including the use of information warfare, mercenary groups like the Wagner group, and smaller-scale special operations. First carried out in Georgia, this tactic has been deployed in a number of different countries and conflicts. Using the spread of false information on social media and the selective release of hacked materials, Russia has intervened in numerous elections to support candidates seen as far-right, divisive, or pro-Russian, as well as to back causes seen as detrimental to Western interests. Prominent examples include the 2016 US presidential election, the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom that same year, the 2017 French Presidential election, and others. The spread of false information over social media to deny and obfuscate war crimes and other aggressive actions by Russia and its allies is often common, including campaigns to deny the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime and Russian war crimes in Ukraine, such as the Bucha massacre. The state-linked Wagner group has become involved in a number of conflicts around the world, especially in Africa, and launched an unsuccessful rebellion against the Russian government in 2023.

Russian dissidents face significant danger both within Russia and without. Domestically, they face systematic censorship and sometimes attempts on their lives. Many journalists who oppose the regime have been killed under suspicious circumstances, as have opponents of the Kremlin living in Russia and in foreign countries. Former KGB agent and Putin opponent Alexander Litvinenko was assassinated in London through the use of radioactive polonium in 2006, one of a number of suspicious deaths of Russian dissidents in the UK. In 2018, Sergei Skripal, former Russian intelligence agent who worked as a double agent for the UK, was poisoned with the Novichok nerve agent in the British town of Salisbury. Both Skripal and his daughter survived, but British woman who was accidentally exposed to the poison was killed. Convincing evidence links the poisoning to agents of the GRU intelligence service, thought to be responsible for a number of other assassinations across Europe. Opposition leader Boris Nemstov was shot and killed near the Kremlin in 2015. Prominent dissident Alexei Navalny, who exposed corruption by Putin and his allies, has been banned from running for office, was poisoned with Novichok in 2020, and imprisoned once he returned to Russia.

Ukraine has been the most visible conflict involving Russia for almost a decade. In 2013, pro-European protests broke out against the Russia-aligned Yanukovych government. Following a violent response, the protests grew into a revolution that overthrew Yanukovych in 2014. Soon after, Russian troops occupied the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed to Russia in a disputed referendum soon after. Similar separatist movements in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions declared their independence, leading to low-level conflict between Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian separatists. Successive peace agreements failed to resolve the conflict, which saw the involvement of some Russian troops. In 2021, Russia began a buildup of military forces on the Ukrainian border, alleging that Ukraine’s government was run by neo-Nazis and was repressing Russian speakers, and demanded that Ukraine permanently renounce the possibility of joining NATO. In February of 2022, Russia recognized the separatist republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, sending in “peacekeepers” and escalating its information warfare against Ukraine. On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine in what it called a “special military operation”. Ukrainian resistance was stronger than expected, ane the war continues. Millions of Ukrainians fled the country in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, and Russia has been accused of numerous war crimes, including the bombing of civilian targets and and a massacre of civilians in the town of Bucha, near Kyiv. Over ten thousand Ukrainians are estimated to have been killed during the invasion, and tens of thousands of troops on both sides have been killed or injured. Thankfully Russian threats to use tactical nuclear weapons did not materialize, but there is significant fear of escalation of the conflict. A 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive has been less effective than expected, and there is no end to the conflict in sight.

Peace attempts

Peace has been difficult to achieve in numerous conflicts involving Russia. Russia is a nuclear power, and its status as an energy provider to much of Europe, sophisticated propaganda and influence capabilities, and willingness to support authoritarian regimes has ensured that it has faced muted and ineffective criticism from many international actors. The Russian military has carried out numerous war crimes in Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine, and beyond, which are then denied through information warfare, which systematically blames Russian actions on the US, Ukraine, or the West in general. Peaceful resolutions are not a priority of the current Russian leadership – which has pursued military solutions in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and now Ukraine, instead of negotiating with opponents. The current Russo-Ukraine war continues without hope for peace, despite numerous negotiations, and a negotiated peace appears unlikely in the near future. Russia has annexed occupied Ukrainian territory in violation of international law, and its actions have divided the international community, with no consensus on what a final peace should look like. As long as Putin remains in power, full peace appears unlikely in the many conflicts involving Russia.