While there is no ongoing civil conflict in the United States, many experts consider there to be an elevated level of risk. In recent years, there have been numerous high-profile mass-casualty events in the United States. Some are mass shootings motivated by a number of non-political factors, including at schools or public events. There have been occasional ideologically-motivated terrorist attacks, with the most notable being the September 11 attacks carried out by al Qaeda, the Oklahoma City bombing, and the Pulse nightclub shooting. A number of mass shootings carried out for political or ideological reasons have taken place, with many motivated by racial hatred. Many targeted African Americans, including a 2015 shooting at a church in Charlston, South Carolina, a 2022 attack on a supermarket in Buffalo, New York, and a 2023 shooting in Jacksonville, Florida. Attacks have also targeted other minorities, including an attack on a synagogue in Pittsburg and a 2019 attack on a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, targeting Latinos.
The rise of political violence in the last decade is especially concerning. Racially motivated attacks have taken place throughout American history, often targeting the African American community and carried out by hate groups like the Ku Klux Klan, including lynchings and attacks on demonstrators during the Civil Rights Movement. Since 2016, ideologically-motivated political violence has become more common, especially following the 2016 election of Donald Trump as President. In 2017, the Republican House Majority Whip, Steve Scalise, was among those shot by a left-wing activist, thought to have been politically motivated, who attacked a practice for a congressional baseball game. Also in 2017, a number of hate groups held a rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, and one attendee drove a car into a crowd of counter protestors, killing one woman in what was widely seen as a high-profile instance of domestic terrorism.
In 2018, a supporter of Trump mailed bombs intended for former President Barack Obama, former Vice President Joe Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, CNN, Democratic members of congress, a former Attorney General and intelligence officials, an actor, and two billionaires known for their support of Democratic candidates. 2020 saw further escalation in political violence, driven both by that year’s presidential election, and by the protests that followed the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer.
Widespread protests calling for racial equality spread across the country, and the vast majority were peaceful demonstrations. There were some violent incidents, occasionally targeting law enforcement, or involving violent law enforcement action against protestors. There were numerous instances where vehicles were driven into crowds of demonstrators. Most concerning was the participation of extremist groups and the controversial federal response to the protests, especially in Portland and Washington, D.C.
The 2020 election saw unprecedented political polarization, with a number of concerning incidents, many carried out by members of extremist groups, or believers in conspiracy theories such as QAnon. The election, won by Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden, was disputed, and the Trump campaign and its supporters refused to recognize the results.
Numerous legal challenges failed, and on January 6, 2021 a mob of Trump supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol to stop certification of the election. Biden’s win was eventually confirmed, but there is significant evidence that the event, which has been called an attempted coup, was organized ahead of time and was partially carried out by members of extremist groups, who had called for violence against elected officials. Pipe bombs were also left outside the offices of the Democratic and Republican National Committees. Further high-profile incidents of right-wing extremist violence took place, including a failed plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic governor of Michigan, and an attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of the former Democratic speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. While extremist groups such as the proud boys pose a threat, there is growing online radicalization as well. Since 2020, threats against politicians, election officials, school board members, and many other groups have become common.
The increasing amount of political polarization and growing level of political violence in the United States is cause for significant concern. Donald Trump is running for president in 2024, and has escalated his political rhetoric, recently calling for the execution of the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and continuing inflammatory rhetoric that many feel inspires threats against his political opponents. Many of those who denied and attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 election hold high office, including leadership positions in the House of Representatives. There are concerns that further violence could break out in 2024, with numerous public statements by potential candidates or their allies raising concerns about further democratic backsliding. Political dialogue and an end to extremist rhetoric is desperately needed in the U.S. to avoid further political violence, however due to the extreme polarization in the country that is unlikely to take place, and the risk remains high.
