This Week in Peace #76: March 28

This week, peace fragile after South Sudan’s first vice president is arrested. Israelis and Palestinians protest for peace. Will Ukraine and Russia’s Black Sea ceasefire hold out?

Peace Fragile After South Sudan’s First Vice President Arrested

South Sudan’s peace is in a fragile state after the country’s First Vice President Riek Machar was arrested on March 26. Machar is the long-time rival of President Salva Kiir. In a video address, opposition spokesperson Pal Mai Deng said that Machar was being confined by the government, and that his life was “at risk.” 

The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) chief Nicholas Haysom said in a statement that the country’s leaders “stand on the brink of relapsing into widespread conflict or taking the country forward towards peace, recovery and democracy in the spirit of the consensus that was reached in 2018 when they signed and committed to implementing a Revitalized Peace Agreement.” UNMISS called on all parties to exercise restraint. 

This development comes after, on March 5, South Sudanese forces arrested the country’s oil minister, along with several senior military officials allied with Machar. Puok Both Baluang, another spokesperson for Machar, told Reuters that oil minister Puot Kang Chol and deputy head of the army Gabriel Doup Lam were arrested, and that all other senior military officials allied with Machar were put under house arrest. On March 6, forces arrested the country’s peacebuilding minister Stephen Par Kuol.

South Sudan experienced a civil war in 2013 between Machar and President Salva Kiir. Kiir accused Machar of plotting against him, and Machar was removed as vice president. This led to brutal violence between armed groups supporting both figures. In 2018, a peace deal was agreed upon, however, many issues remain. Although the agreement ended a five-year civil war that killed over 400,000 people, talks stalled after Kiir sacked the former government delegation to the talks. 

Israelis and Palestinians Protest for Peace

After the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza collapsed, Israelis and Palestinians are both protesting for peace. On March 25, hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza protested against the ruling Hamas government. Demonstrators chanted, “Out out out, Hamas get out,” and, “We want to end the war.”

The protests came just three days after, on March 22, over 100,000 people in Israel took to the streets of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and other cities, to demand a deal between Israel and Hamas to release the remaining hostages, NPR reported. Demonstrators called for new elections, and accused Israel’s government of working against its people.

Palestinians and Israelis have both suffered massively from the war since October 7, with over 1,200 people killed in Israel, and nearly 50,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza, according to the strip’s health ministry. 

Will Ukraine and Russia’s Black Sea Ceasefire Hold Out?

On March 25, international media reported that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea after separate talks with the US in Saudi Arabia. The White House said that both countries had agreed “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed in a news conference that Ukraine had agreed to stop using force in the black sea, however, the Kremlin released a statement with several conditions for signing up to the agreement, CNN reported. 

Russia says that it will only agree to the deal if restrictions on its agricultural exports imposed by the US and European Union are lifted. The Kremlin said it wouldn’t agree to the deal unless its state agriculture bank and other financial institutions involved in food and fertilizer trade were reconnected to the international payment system Swift. Swift’s headquarters are in Belgium, and the US would have to press European regulators to agree, The New York Times reported. 

Meanwhile, the White House said in a statement that it would “help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.”

Ukraine said that Russia launched a drone strike against the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Mykolaiv just hours after the White House announced that both countries had agreed to the ceasefire.

These developments come after last week, Russia and Ukraine made minimal progress in peace. While Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected a full and immediate ceasefire, merely agreeing to halt attacks on energy infrastructure following a phone call with US President Donald Trump on March 18. Hours after the phone call, the two countries had already accused each other of launching air attacks that caused fires and damaged infrastructure.