This week, prospects for a negotiated and just peace in Ukraine continue to fade, Colombia opens yet another round of negotiations with a rebel group, and a landmark peace deal in South Sudan appears fragile ahead of crucial upcoming elections.
Some hope for progress for Ukraine, but not for peace
This week, Ukraine received some promising news on the international front, but the prospects of a fair negotiated settlement to end Russia’s invasion and occupation still appears remote. An upcoming NATO summit is expected to result in a firm commitment to support and coordinate assistance to Ukraine, but not membership. Despite Russia’s narrative of being provoked by “NATO expansion”, NATO has rejected Ukraine’s strong desire to become a full member, and has not moved to open formal accession negotiations. A negotiated end to the conflict remains unlikely, as Russia continues to insist that any settlement legitimize its occupation and claimed annexation of Ukrainian territory. Both sides presented peace proposals following Ukraine’s peace summit of last week, but neither was acceptable to the other. There was some progress for Ukraine, however, as the European Union opened formal accession negotiations this week. While this will not end the conflict in its current state, EU membership would help guarantee long-term peace for Ukraine. Moldova’s inclusion is a positive step forward for regional peace as well, as fears persist of conflict with Russian-backed separatists in the Transnistria region.
Colombia starts negotiations with another rebel group
In Caracas, Venezuela, Colombia announced the start of yet another set of negotiations with a former rebel group, in a move that could help to strengthen the legacy of a landmark 2016 peace deal. The opening of talks with the Second Marquetalia group is intended to address growing in violence in rural areas, and to resolve a loose end from a landmark peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The Second Marquetalia is led by former FARC members who returned to fighting against the government, and while they are a small group, it is an important step towards normalizing the government’s commitment to peace and to carrying on the legacy of the 2016 agreement. Nearly a decade since the end of the FARC’s decades-long insurgency, Colombia’s countryside is experiencing an era of relative peace, and despite recent setbacks the continued announcements of new peace talks with a wide variety of groups shows that President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” initiative continues to stay on track.
South Sudan’s peace deal under stress before a crucial election
As South Sudan approaches its first ever democratic elections this fall, its vice president, Riek Machar, objected to ongoing peace talks in Kenya, saying that they threaten a 2018 agreement which ended five years of civil war in the world’s youngest country. Machar, who led one side in the war, which killed over 400,000 people, warned that these ongoing negotiations, which include other groups which continue to fight, but not his, should not replace the previous agreement, which had resulted in him becoming vice president. Machar’s protest raises the specter of future political turmoil in South Sudan, at a crucial point before elections in December. South Sudan continues to face numerous issues, including widespread violence, but the 2018 agreement was successful in ending large-scale civil conflict, and should be preserved in order to ensure a first peaceful transition of power.
