This week saw a positive step forward in the peace agenda in Colombia, while Sudan’s army rejected peace talks and Ukraine’s upcoming peace summit will take place in an challenging environment.
Another twist in negotiations between Colombia and rebel groups
This week, Colombia’s government and the marxist rebel National Liberation Army (ELN) announced they had signed the first agreement of the long-running peace process, which will help to include civil society in the process. Negotiations between the two sides have been ongoing for almost two years, despite facing numerous setbacks. The ELN froze talks earlier this year, and later announced that they would resume one of their primary funding tactics – kidnapping for ransom. While there has been no resolution to that particular issue yet, the signing of this agreement is a positive step forward in negotiations with the ELN, which has thousands of fighters and is over 60 years old. Hopefully this particular initiative will succeed where previous ones have failed. Recent events in southwestern Colombia illustrate the importance of finding a lasting peace deal. The 2016 peace deal with the FARC, the largest and most dangerous Colombian rebel group, was a major success for peace in Colombia, but some splinter groups refused to demobilize. One of the largest, known as the EMC, has recently begun to attack police and military outposts, following the breakdown of peace talks earlier this year.
Sudan’s army refuses peace talks, prolonging a dangerous conflict
Sudan’s long and destructive civil war looks set to continue, as Sudanese Armed Forces rejected a call from the United States to return to peace talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The war in Sudan, between the SAF and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has created a humanitarian catastrophe, displaced millions, and shows no signs of slowing. The army did react positively to an Egyptian initiative to bring together civilian groups, but this will likely have little impact on the wider conflict, as the SAF and RSF came together to overthrow or block past attempts at civilian government. Sudanese civilians are caught in between the two sides with intense fighting continuing in the capital of Khartoum and the Darfur region. Neither side has prioritized the safety of civilians, and chose war over power-sharing or a transition to democracy. A peace agreement to end the war and protect Sudanese civilians is crucial, but will likely require pressure from the outside actors backing each side.
Ukraine’s peace summit approaches, but prospects seem bleak
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to promote his upcoming peace summit, which will be held in Switzerland in June, but faces numerous obstacles. Russia will not be in attendance, although it is unlikely that Vladimir Putin’s regime would accept any peace deal that does not legitimize its occupation of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine also faces challenges with its most crucial ally – the United States – as neither President Biden nor Vice-President Kamala Harris are expected to attend the peace summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping, a key backer of Russia’s invasion, is also not expected to be present. In a blow to Swiss hopes for progress, Brazil and India, which have maintained their economic ties to Russia and often take an ambiguous stance on its illegal invasion of Ukraine, also will not be sending senior government officials.
Recent reporting indicates that over 80 countries will be in attendance, and while a number of important topics will be discussed, including the safety of nuclear power plants, prisoner exchanges, and the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, the aim appears to be to build a broad global coalition to pressure Russia into a ceasefire by involving previously neutral states. Ukrainian civilians face the constant threat of Russian attacks, with dozens killed or injured in recent strikes on a shopping center and printing house in Kharkiv. Finding a peace deal that protects Ukrainian civilians, removes the threat of further conflict, and maintains Ukraine’s sovereignty is essential, but unlikely in the short-term. While Russia has recently signaled that it is open to ceasefire talks, its preferred solution would freeze the territorial situation (Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine). A similar approach in 2014 failed to prevent Russia’s 2022 invasion, and anything short of a comprehensive, mutually agreed long-term peace accord that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence will lead to further conflict.
