Welcome back to This Week in Peace, our weekly summary of events in global peacebuilding.
This week, Russia makes an offer for peace negotiations in Ukraine that could be a potential opening, or another part of a hybrid war. Saudi Arabia is set to host peace talks to attempt to end the war in Sudan, which began one year ago this week. Infighting between members of a guerilla group in Colombia further threaten efforts to reach a much-needed peace deal, and an international aid conference can help to strengthen peacebuilding in Ethiopia.
The Kremlin suggests a return to 2022 negotiations, but actions speak louder than words
As Vladimir Putin continues to reshape Russia’s society and economy around his war on Ukraine, Kremlin officials have suggested a return to 2022 negotiations which showed some initial promise on bringing the war to an end, and addressing the desires of both sides. Under the 2022 proposal, Ukraine would have been a neutral, non-nuclear state, with a number of guarantors, including the US and Russia, vowing to protect its security, with specific interventions required in case of a future invasion. As we reported last week, an upcoming peace conference in Switzerland won’t include Russia, and French and now German efforts to convince China to pressure Moscow to negotiate in good faith are so far unsuccessful. As Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian civilians and energy infrastructure with missiles and Iranian-made drones, and threatens a military breakthrough as Ukraine waits on aid from the US, an offer to return to peace talks is tempting, at least on the surface.
Russia’s behavior, and its current position of military strength, cast doubt on how serious the offer is, and whether it will be willing to negotiate in a constructive manner. The illegal annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory, the ongoing targeting of civilians, and the war crimes and atrocities carried out during the invasion, most notably in Bucha, almost certainly mean that many Ukranians will likely be suspicious of Russia’s offer. There is also the chance that this offer is not serious but solely intended to blame the West for the war, as part of well-documented Russian cyber warfare and disinformation and influence operations intended to weaken the US and Western support of Ukraine. The war must end, but legitimizing a brutal and unprovoked war of aggression risks opening the door to future conflict.
Saudi Arabia to host peace talks, as Sudan passes a grim anniversary
In a move welcomed by regional and international actors, Saudi Arabia announced it would be holding further peace talks between the two warring factions in Sudan, as the war marks its one-year anniversary. The conflict has created a humanitarian crisis, with millions at risk of famine, sexual violence, and displacement, yet has been overshadowed by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Caused by a dispute over power by the generals in charge of Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, the war has become a proxy war for a variety of states. Further complicating the issue is that one of the states facilitating the peace talks, the United Arab Emirates, is one of the chief backers of the RSF, which is notorious for its atrocities and crimes against humanity in Darfur. The two generals have previously collaborated to attack Sudan’s pro-democracy movement, and peace will only be possible when global actors stop seeing the war as an opportunity, and instead as a humanitarian emergency which must be addressed urgently. The Saudi-hosted talks are an opportunity, but sustained action from the international community is necessary to end the war, and protect the people of Sudan. It is also crucial that the voices of Sudanese women and democracy activists are included.
Read our story on Sudan from January here, and keep an eye out for an upcoming story on the crisis.
Further turmoil in Colombia, as infighting may doom peace talks with guerillas
This publication has frequently reported on Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” initiative, and the challenges it faces. This week, the outlook worsened for Petro, as infighting within a guerilla group known as the EMC threatened to further derail peace talks. The EMC is the largest group of dissidents from the Marxist FARC rebels. The FARC signed a historic peace agreement with the government in 2016, starting an ongoing peace process that aims to bring Colombia’s decades of civil conflict to an end. Many members chose to continue their armed struggle, and many of them organized under the EMC. The group recently agreed on a ceasefire and peace talks with the government, but ongoing violence have made the path to negotiations difficult. Recent infighting, which has seen only some parts of the organization represented, further damage the prospects for a negotiated deal.
Read our recent article on environmental peacebuilding in Colombia here.
Aid conference can help to keep fragile Ethiopia on a path towards peace
This week, international donors pledged over $600 million in humanitarian aid for Ethiopia at a UN-organized conference, although the initiative fell short of its $1 billion goal. Ethiopia is still dealing with the aftermath of the two years of devastating war in the Tigray region, which put hundreds of thousands at risk of famine, and the recent suspension of food aid following the revelation of a massive campaign of theft and diversion. Millions of people in the Tigray region still rely on humanitarian aid, and the scars of the exceptionally brutal war, which saw war crimes committed both by Tigrayan rebels and the Ethiopian and Eritrean forces opposing them. While that war ended, Ethiopia is now dealing with two revolts by ethnic militias in its two largest regions, violence which recently spilled into the capital of Addis Ababa. The promise of increased aid can help to mitigate the effects of years of war and is an important step forward, but sustained international agreement is needed to help build peace in Ethiopia, and make sure that the 2022 agreement with Tigrayan rebels holds.
Read our past stories on Ethiopia here.
