Welcome back to This Week in Peace, our weekly summary of events in global peacebuilding.
This week, we discuss a new initiative to negotiate peace between criminal groups in Mexico, progress towards elections that could cement long-term peace in South Sudan, and a French effort to convince China to push Russia to end its war on Ukraine.
Mexico’s Catholic bishops play a new role – peace negotiators
Mexico’s ongoing security crisis shows no signs of slowing down. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who entered office claiming a policy of “hugs not bullets” and a shift from the drug war of the past, has seen continued high rates of violence, while the growing prominence of the military, not just in the security realm but also in political and economic areas – has fueled concerns over the future of Mexico’s democracy. In some states, the Catholic Church is emerging as an alternative peace negotiator. In the state of Guerrero, which has seen some of the worst violence in recent years, a February deal negotiated directly between bishops and criminal groups had a positive impact, leading to a drop in homicides. Following the success of these local initiatives, church leaders led an initiative to develop recommendations to improve the security situation through national dialogue. The leading candidates in the country’s approaching presidential election have endorsed the document, although it is unclear whether they would adopt any of the recommendations it contains. Either way, these developments are a positive sign that unconventional approaches might help to build peace in Mexico, and redicue, if not end, the level of violence throughout the country.
South Sudan approaches a crucial period where a fragile peace will be tested
South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, is scheduled to hold its first elections later this year. The country has a turbulent history – following decades of armed struggle against Sudan, which resulted in its independence in 2011, the country experienced a devastating civil war, which ended in 2018. The country has no permanent constitution, and elections have been postponed several times. The country faces ongoing violence, often influenced by ethnic disputes, and an economic crisis caused by the war in Sudan. Vice President Riek Machar, who had led one side in the civil war, recently suggested yet another postponement. In a positive sign for the future of peace and democracy in the country, one of the world’s poorest, President Salva Kiir came out in support of holding the elections in December 2024, warning his fellow politicians “not to cling to power”. With no permanent constitution, South Sudan faces a crucial crossroads, holding elections for the first time in its 13 year history could prevent further widespread conflict, and lead to a peaceful and democratic future.
Read our past stories about South Sudan here.
France tries to find peace in Ukraine through China
Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, as American domestic politics leave Kyiv without much-needed aid. France has recently emerged as one of Ukraine’s closest allies, attempting to find a solution through engagement with China. French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné visited Beijing this week, calling on China to send “very clear” messages in support of international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty. China’s ostensibly neutral position, combined with its close ties to Russia, mean that it could indeed act as a peace actor, as one of the few states that could exert pressure on the Kremlin to enter into good-faith negotiations.
While this approach seems promising on paper, there are a number of factors that make it unlikely. The largest obstacle is the ideological and political motivations behind Russia’s war, and the rhetoric coming from Moscow which makes peace talks appear impossible. Russia has consistently violated Ukrainian sovereignty, since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Russian politicians consistently deny the existence of Ukraine as a nation, especially since the unprovoked 2022 invasion – meaning that an appeal on the grounds of respect for sovereignty and international law are unlikely to resonate. China has tried to present itself as a global peace actor, and negotiated a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, its territorial claims on Taiwan and in the South China Sea mean that it may have ideological sympathy for Russia’s position, and it has become an increasingly close economic and political partner of Russia.
