Welcome back to This Week in Peace, our weekly summary of events in global peacebuilding.
This edition covers events in the past few weeks, including an update on the status of peace talks to end the war in Gaza, and the prospects for peace in Ukraine. The UN Secretary-General continued to call for peace in Sudan, and Armenia reiterated its desire for a historic peace treaty with Azerbaijan.
Gaza
Israel’s war in Gaza continues, with no hope for a ceasefire as Ramadan approaches. The dire humanitarian situation, and the continuing threat to Palestinian civilians, has led to even Israel’s closest ally, the United States, to call for a ceasefire, language that it had avoided until recently. Vice President Kamala Harris publicly called for an immediate ceasefire, a call repeated in a draft UN resolution, which calls for an end to all fighting and the release of all remaining hostages.
While this is an important rhetorical shift from one of the few nations able to influence Israel’s actions, the status of peace talks remains frozen. Negotiations held in Cairo eem to have paused for the time being with the departure of Hamas negotiators. The talks, mediated by Egypt and Qatar but without the involvement of Israel, had faltered as the two sides refused to negotiate on key demands. Hamas has called for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the return of displaced Palestinians, while Israel has called for the release of all remaining hostages. Talks are expected to resume in around a week, but it is crucial that a deal be reached soon to get critical aid to Gaza, where civilians face imminent danger of starvation and malnutrition as aid deliveries falter.
In a small sign of hope that there is the potential for moderation on the Israeli side, the Israeli government decided against restricting access to the Al Aqsa mosque compound, one of the holiest sites in Islam, during the month of Ramadan. The extremist far-right cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had called to prevent Muslim worshippers from accessing the site, which would have further escalated tensions in the region, considering the impact of similar moves in the past. While Israel continues its war on Gaza, settlement expansion, and violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, this move is a step towards reducing tensions and preventing further escalation of violence.
Read our past stories on this conflict here.
Ukraine
As Ukraine faces more difficulties in combating Russia’s illegal invasion, two incidents have laid bare the need for peace and an end for Russian aggression, to protect Ukrainian civilians and prevent an escalation of the conflict.
As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to solicit support for a peace process from states like Saudi Arabia and China that could serve as mediators, a missile strike highlighted the dangers of Russia’s aggression. Zelensky had been hosting Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in the city of Odesa when a missile reportedly exploded just a few hundred meters from the delegations. While Zelensky and Mitsotakis were unharmed and not specifically targeted, it was a stark reminder of the risks Ukrainians face, and of the urgent need for peace before the conflict escalates further. Russian missile and drone strikes against civilians have been ongoing since the start of the war, and show no signs of stopping. While Western countries debate over which weapons to give Ukraine, or whether to give them at all, this strike shows that Russia does not feel the need to show any restraint in its ongoing war against its neighbor. Had the strike landed closer to the leaders, there may have been drastic consequences, considering the Greek membership of NATO and the European Union.
An end to the war is urgently needed, yet the continued aggressive and nationalistic rhetoric from Russian leaders makes the likelihood of good-faith peace talks appear slim. Former Russian president and current deputy head of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev recently spoke in front of a map partitioning Ukraine between Russia and its neighbors, vowing that the war would continue until Ukraine surrenders. He explicitly ruled out peace talks with Zelensky’s government, which essentially rules out a peaceful solution to the conflict in the short term. Mediators with relationships with both countries, such as China, India, and South Africa, may be able to eventually find a breakthrough, but unless Russia moderates its position a just peace is highly unlikely.
Read more stories on Ukraine here.
Guterres calls for Ramadan ceasefire in Sudan
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for a ceasefire in Sudan during the month of Ramada, as the country’s civil war continues. The humanitarian situation continues to worsen, with millions displaced and at risk of starvation. Human rights abuses are common, and civilians have been frequently targeted. Despite this, the war has received little media attention, and peace talks have sene little success. The two sides – the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have both been accused of abuses and war crimes, and have received backing from some foreign states. A high profile figure such as Guterres is a positive sign that the conflict is receiving more global attention, and hopefully this is the start of a wider push to bring both sides together for peace talks and an end to the fighting.
Read our recent story on Sudan here.
Armenia remains hopeful for historic peace treaty
Previous editions of this series have discussed the progres, or lack thereof, in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, following Baku’s takeover of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh last fall. While there is still no final agreement on a treaty and talks have stalled, Armenia continues to maintain its desire for what would be a historic declaration of peace between the two neighbors. This week, Armenia’s deputy foreign minister said that Armenia still has the “political will” to come to an agreement, and that it is possible if Azerbaijan shows the same will, with an emphasis on respect for territorial integrity. He also discussed hopes to normalize relations with Turkey, which have historically been tense due to the legacy of the Armenian genocide. If both goals are accomplished, it could lead to a new era in the Caucasus, where tension and at times open conflict has been the norm for decades.
Read more stories on Armenia and Azerbaijan here.
