While the world is largely focused on conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, a civil war in Sudan has caused a humanitarian crisis, with thousands killed and millions displaced. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are fighting for control of the country, driven by a rivalry between the group’s respective leaders, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. The two men are former collaborators who overthrew longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir in a 2019 coup, a few months before protestors were massacred in Khartoum by the RSF. In 2021, a transitional civil-military government was overthrown in another coup, carried out once again by the SAF and the RSF. Tensions between the two organizations, who control significant portions of Sudan’s economy and natural resources, erupted into open war on April 15, 2023.
The civil war has led to a dire humanitarian situation, with both sides accused of war crimes. Civilians have been caught in the crossfire and deliberately targeted, in addition to the widespread use of sexual violence. To date, it is estimated that over 7 million people have been displaced and 12,000 killed. One particular area of concern is the Darfur region, where largely Arab militias known as the Janjaweed carried out ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity against non-Arab ethnic groups, especially the Masalit people, in the early 2000s. The RSF is the organizational successor of the Janjaweed, and now controls most of Darfur, where it appears to be carrying out ethnically-motivated atrocities once again. The capital city of Khartoum remains split between the two sides, as the fierce fighting of last spring has settled into a stalemate.The RSF now controls key infrastructure, and the SAF government was forced to relocate to Port Sudan. The RSF has made recent advances, capturing the strategically important city of Wad Manani in December. Thousands of refugees, many of whom may have already fled earlier fighting in Khartoum, were forced to leave. Many Sudanese fear that an RSF victory, or at least an expansion of its territory, will bring more of the looting, sexual violence, and deliberate targeting of civilians already seen in Khartoum and Darfur.
The nature of the conflict makes a simple media framing difficult – both sides are guilty of war crimes, and worked together to overthrow a civilian government. Neither side is working to protect civilians or working towards civilian rule. Any resolution to the conflict will almost certainly result in one or both retaining their power and wealth. Millions of Sudanese have suffered due to this power struggle. Dagalo has been attempting to appeal to a broad audience by meeting with heads of state and presenting the RSF as an anti-Islamist force in Sudan. He has also called for an immediate ceasefire if the SAF also agreed. Dagalo’s past, as the head of an Islamist dictator’s notoriously brutal paramilitary force, and a prominent coup leader, makes him an unreliable partner for peace. Burhan rejected earlier calls for a ceasefire, saying that the “war crimes and crimes against humanity” the RSF has carried out in Darfur make negotiating impossible. However, Burhan’s forces have been accused of similar behavior, and the SAF has rejected a past proposal by a Kenya-led regional grouping which involved a foreign peacekeeping force. Neither leader is a credible advocate for the rights of the Sudanese people, and appear to weaponise the language of peace to gain more power for themselves.
As the crisis continues, Sudan faces a pessimistic outlook. There are a number of factors that have led to such a highly destructive war receiving little press coverage in much of the world. Two high-profile wars, in Ukraine and then Gaza, have consumed much of the world’s attention, when it comes to international news, leaving less time and space for Sudan. The war in Gaza, especially, with the horrific civilian death toll in the strip and the massacre carried by Hamas, have captured global interest and remain prominent, especially in Western and Arab countries where the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is an important political issue. While international attention is focused elsewhere, potential partners for peacebuilding, including Sudan’s neighbors, other regional powers, and countries like the United States and Russia, have either failed to sufficiently motivate both sides to meet for peace talks, or picked a side to promote their own interests.
Sudan’s direct neighbors have little inclination to press for peace and a restoration of democracy. Egypt and Chad are both ruled by military regimes, while South Sudan faces ongoing political turmoil following its recent independence from Sudan. Libya and the Central African Republic are dealing with civil armed conflict, while Ethiopia is still dealing with the fallout from a long and brutal civil war of its own in the Tigray region. Eritrea, which took part in the Tigray war, is one of the world’s most militarized and repressive dictatorships. Sudan is part of what has been called Africa’s “coup belt”, where military takeovers have been common in recent years, and international pressure has failed to preserve democracy throughout the region, partially due to the declining leverage of Western powers in Africa.
The most significant effort to build peace since the war began in April 2023, took place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in October 2023, led by the “Quad”, consisting of the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. One factor complicating their work, however, is that most international actors to date appear to be focused on picking sides to gain influence in Sudan.The UAE, despite its role in peace talks, has been accused of covertly arming and supporting the RSF. Sudan is another example of Russia’s use of the Wagner Group and other PMCs to back autocrats and military regimes in order to access lucrative resources and cultivate influence in Africa. Egypt has armed the SAF with Turkish drones, and Ukraine has attacked Wagner-linked forces in Sudan on at least one occasion. Further complicating the international situation is the fact that the United States and European Union will hold elections this year that could impact future foreign policy decisions and further distract media and public attention from international news. In a further blow, the United Nations recently removed its political mission in Sudan, removing a credible peace intermediary and prominent international presence. In order for a peaceful resolution to be found, Sudanese elites and their international backers must be willing to consider compromise. If they continue to refuse to negotiate, the Sudanese people will continue to pay the price.
Leo Weakland
Leo Weakland graduated from the George Washington University in 2023 with a Bachelor of Arts in International Affairs. He is the Development and Operations Manager for Peace News Network, and is based in Washington, D.C. Before Peace News, he worked as a Research Assistant at GWU, for a nonprofit focused on supporting veterans running for office, and interned at the Office of the General Counsel at the Centers for Disease Control.
