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Libya: How COVID-19 is impacting peace and conflict

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On October 23, 2020, the two main warring factions in Libya signed an agreement for “a permanent ceasefire in all areas of Libya.” The accord followed talks in Geneva under the 5+5 Joint Military Commission, a UN support mission to bring peace to Libya, with the two main warring factions.
One side is the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), an interim government created from a UN-led initiative. The other side is the eastern-based Libya National Army (LNA), led by the commander Khalifa Haftar and supported by countries such as Egypt, the UAE, and Russia. This ceasefire agreement came months after the COVID-19 outbreak and the UN’s call for a global ceasefire during the public health crisis.

As in many countries, the public health crisis has highlighted corruption and fragility in Libya. During much of the pandemic before the ceasefire announcement, violence continued while cases rose. In Sebha, a municipality in the south where thousands of people had been displaced due to fighting, there was an eightfold increase in COVID-19 cases. Many displaced persons are living in overcrowded conditions which allowed for easy spread of the virus. On top of the health crisis, the Libyan economy was also hit by an extensive blockade on oilfields and ports by the LNA. Haftar demanded redistribution of the oil revenues, arguing that much of the money made by the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) was being diverted to mercenaries for the GNA.
The blockade lasted until mid-September and likely cost the country $9.8 billion in lost revenue. It also directly impacted civilian life, worsening electricity and fuel shortages in the country.
According to Peter Maurer, The President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) on a visit to Libya, “People have little electricity, drinking water, sanitation, or medical care in the middle of a growing pandemic.” Additionally, many daily wage earners and migrants have been hardest hit as income opportunities have disappeared and prices of staple foods have jumped.
The worsening crisis appears to have acted as a stimulus, pushing GNA and LNA leaders towards a ceasefire agreement. According to Dr. Mietek Boduszyński, a scholar with the Middle East Institute, “It is possible that one positive consequence of the pandemic was that it helped motivate the warring sides to sit down at the negotiating table.”
The two sides agreed to return frontline forces to their bases and to the withdrawal of all foreign forces within three months. In a sign of good faith, there has been relative calm leading up to the new round of talks began on November 9 in Tunisia. This dialogue includes a variety of constituencies in Libya, with the participation of Libyan women, youth, and minorities. The forum is ongoing and will hopefully create a framework with a set timeline for national elections.
Although Libya has a history of failed peace initiatives, UN special envoy Stephanie Williams is hopeful and stresses the need for international backing for the success of this ceasefire.

Israel and Palestine: How COVID-19 is impacting peace and conflict

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Israel and Palestine stand out among conflict-fragile countries during the COVID-19 outbreak for their high number of deaths per million and their temporary cooperation at the start of the pandemic. Although neither Israel nor Palestine responded publicly to the UN ceasefire call, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres lauded Israel and Palestine for their cooperation during the early part of the outbreak. Ultimately, this cooperation struggled to last and was unable to bring either party closer to a peaceful solution.
At the outset of the pandemic, COVID-19 posed both a challenge and an opportunity for the conflict. The virus outbreak occurred while Israel was still unable to form a coalition government and the legitimacy of the Israeli government was in decline. As the virus was rapidly spreading across Israel and Palestine, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas conducted “telephone diplomacy,” leading to a joint fight against the coronavirus. Many hoped this cooperation could ignite continuing negotiations towards establishing a peace solution for the conflict.

This relationship, however, quickly changed in June when Israel announced it would continue annexation plans in the West Bank, which is illegal under international law. In response, the Palestinian Authority made the decision to end cooperation and refuse tax revenue transfers from Israel in an effort to pause Israel’s plans. Nickolay Mladenov, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, stated that this breakdown in cooperation would further complicate the response to an escalating COVID crisis.
As Israel moved forward in its plans and the Palestinian Authority rejected options to cooperate, Mladenov said, “this situation could have serious repercussions on the ability to control [the virus’] spread and its impact on people’s lives.”
In August, Israel suspended annexation plans as part of its agreement to normalize relations with the United Arab Emirates, however, two months later, Israel once again resumed settlement activities. The High Planning Committee set out its largest collective advancements to date on October 14 and 15, advancing 5,000 settlement housing units.
“Settlement-related activities…undermined the prospect of achieving a viable two-State solution in line with UN resolutions,” said Mladenov.
Throughout this, the Palestinian Authority has continued to reject cooperation with Israel.
The economic fallout from the pandemic has particularly impacted the legitimacy and power of the Palestinian Authority. Mladenov stated “the viability of the Palestinian Authority is being severely undermined by an economic and fiscal crisis that has been exacerbated by the Palestinian decision to end civilian and security coordination with Israel.”
Cooperation between Israel and Palestine is necessary for the public health crisis but also crucial to the stability of the Palestinian Authority. Despite these challenges, Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas agreed to hold elections in early 2021—the first in nearly 15 years—moving towards ending over a decade of infighting.
Although the COVID pandemic has not significantly impacted relations between Israel and Palestine, Palestinian President Abbas called for an international conference in 2021 to launch a “genuine peace process”. While Israel has shown limited interest in this initiative, it’s timing lines up with a new US administration which could support and momentum. Furthermore, Israel will continue to attempt regional peace following recent normalization of relation agreement with Bahrain, the UAE, and Sudan.

Nigeria: How COVID-19 is impacting peace and conflict

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In northern Nigeria, uninterrupted conflict during the COVID-19 pandemic reflects how little influence a public health crisis can have in slowing down violence. Armed jihadist groups, such as Boko Haram, have rejected any notion of a ceasefire with the Nigerian government. Since 2018, jihadi violence has been increasing in the Lake Chad Basin in the form of targeted, high-profile attacks against military personnel. During the pandemic, armed groups have purposely disrupted the public health response, including spreading misinformation about COVID-19. Meanwhile, in northern Nigerian states worst hit by the Boko Haram insurgency, “mysterious deaths” have been reported, indicating a likelihood that there are COVID-19 cases in these regions that are unaccounted for.

For Boko Haram, as we have seen with other armed groups in other conflict-fragile countries, COVID-19 is seen as an opportunity. One faction, known as the People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad (JAS), encouraged people to gather together—against precautionary measures—to end the outbreak through community prayer. This and other statements have fed widespread skepticism that social distancing is necessary. An affiliate of ISIS in West Africa (ISWAP) celebrated the economic downturn caused by the virus, hoping it would divert government attention and increase fragility. In reality, however, the pandemic has yet to bring any significant aid to the jihadist movement.


Former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria John Campbell, currently a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains that “COVID is essentially irrelevant” to the security environment in Nigeria. He argues that, as cases remain low, COVID will have little long-term effect in the trajectory of the state. Violence in the Lake Chad Basin and economic turmoil have plagued Nigeria long before the pandemic and it seems COVID-19 may have little impact in relieving violence.

While violence in Nigeria seems to be unchanging during COVID, the pandemic has caused economic shocks that could have a longer-term impact on the fragility of the country. COVID deaths and transmissions have stayed relatively low in the country, but the biggest burden coronavirus has brought are the demand and supply shocks in the oil market. Nigeria is oil-dependent; crude oil makes up 10% of its GDP and 86% of its export revenue. Recent shocks in the oil market have led to a contraction of the Nigerian economy by 3.4% and fears of food insecurity and a worsened humanitarian crisis. The World Bank estimates 5 million people in Nigeria will be pushed into poverty during the pandemic.


Although food insecurity is a longstanding issue in Nigeria—it ranks 93rd out of 117 countries on the Global Hunger Index—economic disruptions from COVID should not be ignored. Lockdowns have affected the food supply chain, leading to higher prices on staple foods such as rice and wheat. Food insecurity from the pandemic is most likely to effect the already vulnerable populations in the north, where more than 75% of impoverished Nigerians live, further driving fragility in this region.


The case of Nigeria suggests that the UN’s call for a global ceasefire during the pandemic was optimistic. If anything, armed groups, such as Boko Haram, rely on instability and a distracted government to gain territory in their struggle. In all, the relatively small outbreak of COVID in Nigeria suggests that it could be a small blip in the greater trajectory of Nigeria’s security future.


Photo: IAEA/Flickr

Iraq: How COVID-19 is impacting peace and conflict

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Iraq has been one of the hardest hit countries in the MENA region by the coronavirus. With 213 deaths per million people as of the end of August 2020, Iraq’s death rate is about twice that of the global average. The weakened healthcare system and vulnerable populations created by its conflict against ISIS from 2014-2017 has complicated the Iraqi government’s response to the pandemic. Although ISIS was mostly forced out of its territories in Iraq by the end of 2017, it remains active. The humanitarian, governance, and economic impacts of coronavirus have complicated the ability the Global Coalition against ISIS to respond to the continued attacks by the militant group.

On December 9, 2017, Iraq’s Commander-in-Chief Haider al-Abadi announced the defeat of ISIS within Iraq’s borders. Although ISIS lost 95% of its territory in Iraq, it has remained active and continues to carry out guerilla attacks across Iraq and Syria. During COVID, these small attacks have increased, reflecting a surge that began before the pandemic and a strategy intended to take advantage of the weak COVID response. Belkis Wille, a senior researcher for the Conflict and Crisis Division at Human Rights Watch stated, “While the country has been focused on battling COVID-19, we’ve seen a worrying trend (which was already the case before the pandemic hit), of small scale ISIS attacks.”

Iraqi military officials claim ISIS has doubled down during this crisis and has escalated its attacks from local intimidation to more complex tactics such as IED attacks and ambushes. Wille explains that one factor in the increasing violence is “the government has had less of an ability to address these kinds of attacks since the pandemic.” The most recent quarterly report by the Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), the U.S. operation against ISIS, notes how the security environment has changed with COVID-19. The report claims the militant group is taking advantage of the pandemic by filling in the vacuums left by reductions in military forces due to COVID-19, as military personnel on duty have decreased by 50%.

The Iraqi government struggled to handle the pandemic after its first case in the end of February. COVID spread while the government was already responding to mass protests, US-Iran tensions, and declining oil prices. Although the government attempted to impose strict restrictions to slow the spread, enforcement was very difficult. Congregations of religious pilgrims defied these measures, including on March 20 when hundreds of thousands of Shiite Muslims traveled to a shrine in Baghdad. Emergency funds that were necessary to bolster the weak healthcare infrastructure were already depleted due to plummeting oil prices, requiring the health ministry to seek charitable donations for its COVID response.

The combined threat of COVID and shocks in the oil market are likely to stress food supply chains in Iraq. Food production is already behind the 66% growth in population in the past 20 years and the $40 billion deficit from dropping oil prices complicate the heavily-government-funded agriculture system. Additionally, the UN estimates that there are already 1.7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance, a population that would likely feel the brunt of the diminishing oil revenues and fiscal deficit. Iraq’s dependence on oil revenues and weakened healthcare structure has prevented a strong response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In turn, these weaknesses have encouraged ISIS to increase attacks. Although the U.S. report determines that there has not been a “resurgence,” ISIS is attempting to take advantage of vulnerabilities caused by the pandemic to regain some influence in the region. As Iraq continues to struggle in managing the multiple crises of the pandemic, ISIS will continue exploiting the situation and further complicate the Iraqi government’s response.

Central African Republic: How COVID-19 is impacting peace and conflict

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COVID-19 reached the Central African Republic with its first case on March 14, 2020, just a month after the first anniversary of the Political Accord for Peace and Reconciliation. Signed in February 2019, the objective of the accord was to “promote dialogue between the Government and armed groups…to put a definitive end to the crisis.” Fourteen armed groups agreed to respecting the legitimacy of the government and disarming while the government agreed to decentralizing and creating a more inclusive governance system.

In UN Secretary-General Guterres’ report on the anniversary of the Accord, he noted that although violence decreased overall, there were still many violations of the agreement. Igor Acko, a CAR analyst with the United States Institute of Peace in Bangui, said “the ceasefire was delightfully violated every day by armed groups since the beginning and with COVID, this trend is continuing.” The lack of good faith from several armed groups and follow-through from the government caused the January 2020 deadline for disarmament to be missed. Although the number of deaths from conflict have decreased by 25% from March-August 2019 compared to the same period in 2020, there have been multiple major incidents, such as attacks on National Election Authority (ANE) agents working to register voters ahead of the presidential election in December.
In 2020, the priorities of the CAR government were to move forward with the Political Accord for Peace and Reconciliation and prepare for the upcoming elections, however, COVID-19 has complicated these processes. The pandemic has “exacerbated the humanitarian crisis.” Although there have been less than 5,000 cases and a relatively small number of deaths, the economic shutdowns to mitigate the virus are heavy burdens on an already fragile society. Prices for imported food increased by 31% and urban transportation costs increased by 67%. These price changes are especially impactful on refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), who make up 25% of the population. Humanitarian aid is a necessary part of creating access to food and healthcare for vulnerable populations in CAR, however, Acko stated that, due to travel restrictions, “doctors and expatriate NGO workers were not able to come to help,” leaving many IDPs and food insecure people without support.
Despite these challenges, many NGOs are attempting to create solutions to the economic impact of COVID-19. For instance, the Youth Education Pack (YEP), funded by Education Cannot Wait and led by the Norwegian Refugees Council, offers vocational training to students in the face of school closures. Similarly, in the face of limited face masks, the World Bank’s Londo Project in CAR produced over two million masks to help people comply with the government’s mask mandate.
Today, the upcoming elections remain the priority in moving forward peacefully towards a fairer and more inclusive democracy in CAR. Secretary Guterres called this a “decisive [period] for the country” and called on all stakeholders to ensure a free and safe election. Earlier during the pandemic, the ruling party attempted to extend the presidential term, arguing the pandemic would prevent a fair election. In June, the constitutional court decided on the case, rejecting the delay and ensuring the election will be held this year. Still, there have been disruptions in voter registration due to the pandemic. As the pandemic and violence continues, it will be crucial for election authorities to ensure the public in CAR are able to fairly participate in the upcoming presidential election.

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