Following the military coup of 1 February 2021, Myanmar is in turmoil. At this critical juncture, it is worth re-visiting and re-imagining the type of country Burma could be.

Myanmar’s complex conflict context

Within days of the military takeover, huge numbers of ordinary people took to the streets, launching a Civil Disobedience Movement which continues to this day. Following violent crackdowns against the protesters, tens of thousands of young people took up calls for resistance. As of July 2022, more than 2,000 anti-coup activists have been killed by the Army in addition to untold numbers of ethnic nationality civilians caught up in the grinding civil war. Following the junta’s bloody crackdown, opposition to the coup proliferated. In almost every one of Myanmar’s 320 townships, People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) emerged. These are diverse in character, with some aligned to the National Unity Government (established by elected lawmakers and other opposition actors, after the coup), some working with already long-established Ethnic Armed Organisations (sometimes also known as Ethnic Resistance Organisations or EAOs), and others operating independently.  

Eighteen months after the coup, every day brings news of further attacks and the death or defection of more Myanmar Army soldiers. Despite some predictions that PDFs would quickly be defeated, the opposite seems to be happening. In many parts of the country (including Sagaing and Magwe Regions, which have seen no armed conflict for decades), the PDFs have inflicted significant battlefield casualties on the Myanmar Army.

In several ethnic states, PDFs have made common cause with EAOs. Particularly in Chin, Kachin, Karenni and Karen areas, EAOs and PDFs have resisted violent incursions by the Myanmar Army, in some cases pushing them back. This is happening in a context where EAOs such as the Karen National Union and Kachin Independence Organisation have been providing essential services to conflict-affected, ethnic nationality communities for decades. Other new actors include several sub-national (state-level) governance bodies, which have emerged in several areas since the coup, bringing together civil society networks, political parties and EAOs.

‘Federalism from below’

While constitutional change is necessary for just and sustainable conflict resolution, federalism can also be seen as an asymmetrical ‘emergent phenomenon’ – developing from the ‘bottom-up’, out of the existing, autonomous practices and arrangement of communities and EAOs. The international diplomatic and aid community should support these local governance administrations and service delivery systems – particularly given the illegitimacy of the military regime. Education and other services provided by EAOs, often in partnership with CSOs, can be considered the building blocks of a new type of federalism in Myanmar. 

Federalism has long been considered an important tool for resolving Myanmar’s protracted state-society and centre-periphery conflicts and achieving self-determination for ethnic nationality communities. While constitutional change is necessary for just and sustainable conflict resolution, federalism can also be seen as an ‘emergent phenomenon’ – developing from the ‘bottom-up’ out of the existing practices and existing arrangement of communities and EAOs.

The emergence of federalism-from-below in Myanmar is an asymmetrical phenomenon, based on deep-rooted political cultures among long-established ethnic nationality stakeholders and societies, which have played out differently in different parts of the country. In order for federal political arrangements to meet the historic demands of ethnic-national communities, it is important that minority representatives (and ‘minorities-within-minorities’) are included in decision-making and power-holding forums at the sub-state level. Although EAOs enjoy significant legitimacy among the communities they seek to represent, their political credibility needs to be demonstrated to domestic and international stakeholders through responsible and rights-based approaches.

The mother of all ‘critical junctures’

It seems unlikely that the majority of Myanmar’s citizens will be reconciled anytime soon with the military regime holding power. Instead, the challenge and opportunity is for reconciliation between the Burman majority and ethnic nationality citizens, who for decades have suffered such violence.

Before the coup, political reform and the peace process were stalled under an NLD government that failed to deliver on its promises to ethnic nationality communities. Since the military takeover, however, the country’s politics have been re-energized. ‘Gen Z’ and other young people from the cities are making common cause with Myanmar’s ethnic nationality actors who themselves have suffered from decades of state-led violence and forced assimilation.

Myanmar is at a critical juncture, in which narratives, identities and interests are being displaced and reworked. This is an extraordinary opportunity for building common ground between opponents of a military regime, ethnic Burman people from the cities, and activists and communities from ethnic areas.

It is essential that the international community does not jeopardize the struggle for freedom, and movements toward national reconciliation in Myanmar by recognizing sham elections, which the military junta currently plans to hold next year. Without full, free and fair participation from all political stakeholders, any elections or moves towards a negotiated settlement to decades of state-society and armed conflict will lack credibility and exacerbate conflict.