Ukraine became a constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922, and apart from some years of German occupation, the country remained under Soviet rule until 1991 when the Soviet Union fell apart.
When the Ukraine government withdrew from its long-term policy toward the EU in 2013, a violent crisis arose between opposition parties, pro-EU-demonstrators, civil society groups, and right-wing militants, on the one side, and the government, on the other. It escalated to a limited war in early 2014, killing at least 90 people within three days, and leading to the overthrow of President Yanukovych. Russia then proceeded to annex the Crimean Peninsula, and a full-scale war (over secession and the resources of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions) broke out between several militant groups (supported by Russia) and the new interim government (backed by Western countries). The fighting is focused in the Donbas region, between the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, on the one hand, and the Ukraine government on the other. Donbas, which is rich in coal and shale gas, has strong ties with Russia and has attempted to proclaim independence. At least 9,800 people had been killed, as well as 3.9% of the population displaced.
In 2016, both Ukraine and Russia increased their military presence at the border between mainland Ukraine and Crimea in response to several violent incidents. Attacks by separatist militias, as well as pro-government far-right militias, continued.
The conflict has also increased tensions between many Western countries and Russia, culminating in multiple rounds of mutual sanctions and NATO-led maneuvers (”Sea Breeze” and ”Rapid Trident 14”). The EU Council also established an advisory mission for the civil security sector in Ukraine (EUAM Ukraine) and in March 2015, the US began delivering $75 million of non-lethal aid and equipment to the government. Recent years have also seen an increased threat of Russia’s use of hybrid warfare, specifically cyber attacks, against Ukraine and other countries.
During the final months of 2021, Russia significantly increased its military presence along the Ukrainian border. As the international community suspected a potential invasion of Ukraine, Russia announced its demands that NATO ceases its eastward expansion and that Ukraine not join NATO. NATO and its allies rejected these demands and in February 2022, Russia officially launched a military invasion of Ukraine, instigating a war that continues to this day. According to the UN, tens of thousands of civilians have lost their lives with even more being internally displaced or becoming refugees. The US sanctioned Russian banks and assets and has sent over $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine. With the continued escalation of conflict, on May 19, 2022, the US senate voted to send $40 billion in military, humanitarian, and economic assistance to Ukraine.
Peace attempts:
Several peace efforts have been made in Ukraine, especially as its stability closely impacts wider international relations, but no treaties have yet been held. In 2014, representatives of Russia, the USA, the EU, and Ukraine adopted the Geneva declaration on the Ukrainian crisis. This included the disarmament of illegal armed groups, the end of the occupation of administrative buildings, and amnesty for protesters. However, heavy fighting continued, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) mediated another round of peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and representatives of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, resulting in the ceasefire agreements of the Minsk accords. This too failed to stop fighting in Donbas and in early 2015 the Minsk II agreements saw the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany agree to a package of measures to alleviate the ongoing war. The new package, however, has been criticized for being very complicated and hopes for its success are fragile. Difficulties in its implementation include the proliferation of arms in Ukraine, the lack of job opportunities, limited access to medical and psychological rehabilitation (particularly for more than 20,000 demobilized soldiers), and deep anxiety that the ceasefire may not hold. In April 2015, the United Nations human rights office said that it is increasingly worried about the dire humanitarian situation in eastern Ukraine and that the situation is likely to deteriorate further due to breaches of the ceasefire.
In 2016, peace negotiations were held, resulting in temporary ceasefires. However, these were violated on an almost daily basis, and no substantial agreements were found. On May 11th the Normandy Quartet agreed on demilitarized zones in Donbas; this was implemented in Donetsk, but only partly enforced in Luhansk.
The current Russian invasion of Ukraine, still an active war, has failed to see any effective attempts at peace talks or ceasefires. The difficult history between the two actors and their lack of trust has proven difficult to amend during peace talks. Some western nations recommend an immediate ceasefire that would allow Russian forces to remain in some of the occupied Ukrainian territory, which Kyiv is strongly against. It is difficult to see a bilateral agreement in the near future, as this conflict concerns the historical west vs east security dilemma in Europe.
