Thailand has dealt with a decades-long insurgency in its southernmost provinces, along with a series of authoritarian and repressive governments. Thailand has been historically dominated by the military and the monarchy. Since the end of World War II, there have been several moments of democratic progress, which have generally been met by a reaction from the military. In the 1960s, Thailand experienced a Communist insurgency, influenced by the nearby war in Vietnam. Thousands of insurgents, soldiers, and civilians were killed. The military executed some civilians accused of being communists, and the insurgency wouldn’t end until the 1980s with an amnesty for defectors, and diminished support from other communist countries. A brief democratic period ended in 1976, when a coup followed a massacre of student protestors, carried out by the police and rightwing paramilitaries. Coup attempts failed in 1981 and 1985, before democracy returned in 1988. A military crackdown after a successful coup in 1991 led to numerous deaths of protestors, with many others injured or arrested. Controversial Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra held office from 2001 until he was overthrown in 2006, with subsequent protests and political instability lasting until another coup in 2014, with many killed in political violence over that 8-year period.
The majority of conflict in Thailand, however, comes from an insurgency in the southern Patani region. Patani has a predominantly Malay and Muslim population, which provoked tension with the central government, which often pursued an assimilationist policy. Sporadic violence was common during the latter part of the 20th century, however the insurgency did not begin in earnest until 2001. Attacks became more frequent and deadly, accompanied by the presence of jihadist groups in what had previously been a separatist conflict. The Barisan Revolusi Nasional emerged as the dominant armed group in the conflict, and for much of its history it opposed any negotiations with the government. Under the Thaksin government of 2001-2006, Thai authorities took a hardline stance towards the insurgency, which led to increased levels of violence. Thousands of civilians have been killed or injured in the decades-long conflict, and both sides have been accused of committing human rights abuses. The Thai government continues to use emergency powers to combat the BRN and other groups.
Peace efforts:
There has been some recent progress towards peace in South Thailand. For years, the government had a policy of not negotiating with insurgents. A 2005 reconciliation commission proposed a number of recommendations, including the imposition of Islamic law in the South and giving the local Malay dialect a special status, but these were rejected by nationalist officials in the government and monarchy. In 2020, Malaysia facilitated the first face-to-face talks between the BRN and the Thai government, although fears remained of a split within the BRN that could lead to more violence. The BRN declared a ceasefire later that year after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the government did not reciprocate. New leadership in the Thai military, and internal changes in the BRN, have led to both sides being more open to peace. Talks have been ongoing since 2021, although fighting continues as the military wing of the BRN prefers to continue combat. The group’s political wing stated its intentino to pursue a peaceful political solution, and engaged positively with the government. However, the military side of the BRN continued violent attacks, and talks were suspended due to upcoming 2022 elections, despite some signals that the group would be open to dialogue. A growing youth movement in Southern Thailand has provoked some optimism for peace, as has the BRN’s shift away from its previous separatist position.
