Moldova

Moldova is a classic example of a frozen conflict. The majority of Moldovans speak Romanian, although there is a Russian-speaking minority, mostly in the region of Transnistria. Moldova became part of the Soviet Union in 1940, when it was occupied by the Red Army as a provision of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany. As the Soviet Union collapsed, Moldova’s regional government became more nationalist, refusing to grant autonomy to two regions, Transnistria and Gagauzia, populated by ethnic minorities, including Russians and Russian-speakers. Moldova became independent in 1991, and the Transnistrian authorities quickly declared their own independence, beginning an armed rebellion.

The ensuing war ended in a stalemate, with Russian troops intervening to prevent a Moldovan victory. Russian troops still remain in the disputed territory, which has a large Russian-speaking population. Since then, the dispute has become one of the most notable frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet world. Transnistria remains unrecognized by most countries and is internationally regarded as Moldovan territory. As Moldova has grown closer to the West, tensions have continued over the future status of the territory. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 raised serious fears of a wider regional conflict, as Russian troops stationed in Transnistria could potentially be used to threaten Moldova or Ukraine’s southwestern flank. In 2023, President Vladimir Putin revoked a decree recognizing Moldova’s sovereignty, signaling a potential willingness to reignite the conflict.

In 2024 and 2025, the Moldovan government under President Maia Sandu pursued deeper integration with the European Union, officially opening EU accession talks in December 2023 and strengthening cooperation with NATO in areas of border security and cyber defense. Moscow has responded aggressively, ramping up disinformation campaigns, financing pro-Russian protests in Chisinau, and allegedly supporting coup attempts to destabilize the government. Transnistrian authorities have also increased coordination with Russian intelligence, while the Moldovan parliament has tightened counter-espionage and anti-corruption measures to curb Russian influence. Moldova’s energy dependence on Russia has decreased significantly, with growing imports from Romania and Ukraine, though economic and political vulnerabilities remain acute.

Peace attempts:
Peace appears unlikely at the moment, especially while Russia’s war in Ukraine continues. Vladimir Putin’s regime has demonstrated a willingness to violate international law and annex territory, having invaded both Ukraine and Georgia. Should the war in Ukraine end with a Russian victory—or even a partial annexation of Ukrainian territory—there could be a heightened risk of renewed conflict in Moldova. Because Transnistria remains de facto occupied by Russia, any peace process largely depends on Moscow’s willingness to negotiate. Given the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West, and Moldova’s increasingly pro-European orientation, a lasting resolution appears distant.

Nonetheless, international diplomatic efforts continue: the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) maintains its 5+2 negotiation framework (involving Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE, and observers from the EU and the U.S.), although formal talks have been stalled since 2019. The EU has pledged to support Moldova’s sovereignty and border control reforms, while the United Nations has called for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria. Despite these efforts, the presence of foreign forces, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and persistent Russian interference mean that Moldova’s path to lasting peace and reunification remains uncertain.