Ethiopia

Besides a brief period of Italian occupation around the time of the Second World War, modern-day Ethiopia was ruled by the Ethiopian Empire for almost 700 years. In the 1970s, the monarchy had grown increasingly unpopular, and was overthrown by a Marxist military junta known as the Derg. The Derg were even more repressive than the monarchy, and it soon found itself engaged in a protracted civil war against a number of rebel groups. The Derg killed potentially hundreds of thousands of Ehtiopians in a violent campaign known as the Qey Shibir, also called the Ethiopian Red Terror. The Derg also fought a war with Somalia and with rebels fighting for Eritrean independence. The civil war lasted until 1991, when rebels overthrew the regime and established a theoretically democratic republic. Hundreds of thousands were killed by the fighting and by the government, and over one million Ethiopians died in a related famine. 

The overthrow of the Derg did not end conflict in Ethiopia. Eritrea had become independent in a peaceful referendum in 1993, however tensions soon grew between the two new neighbors. In 1998, Eritrean military forces invaded a disputed area in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which began a war between the two states. The fighting lasted until 2000, with tens of thousands of soldiers killed on both sides. Eritrea expelled over 100,000 ethnic Ethiopians, and Eritrea did the same to ethnic Eritreans. Fighting ended with a peace agreement in 2000, after two years of devastating fighting. Following the war, the government of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) grew more authoritarian, and clashes continued along the disputed border. The EPRDF was dominated by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, which had been one of the most powerful groups during the civil war. In 2018, Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister, and undertook reforms that appeared to democratize Ethiopia, following years of protests against the TPLF-dominated government. Abiy formed a new party including most regional and ethnic-based parties which had been part of the EPRDF, although the TPLF refused to join. Tensions between the two grew, and in 2020 they erupted into a full-scale conflict. 

In November 2020, the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF) attacked Ethiopian government positions, which was followed by an Ethiopian offensive into Tigray. Fighting continued until 2022, with both sides making large territorial gains followed by successive counteroffensives. The war created a humanitarian crisis, with atrocities committed by both sides. Numerous massacres took place, with civilians targeted by both armed forces, sometimes on ethnic grounds. Tigrayans in Ethiopia faced discrimination, and Eritrean forces joined the war in support of Ethiopia. Civilians suffered greatly during the conflict, and humanitarian assistance was often blocked due to the fighting, which continued until November 2022, when a ceasefire and peace accord were agreed. Unfortunately, conflict has continued since the end of the war. The Oromo Liberation Army continues its insurgency, having allied with the TPLF during the Tigray War. And fighting has recently broken out between the government and an ethnic militia known as the Fano, in the Amhara region, partly due to tensions resulting from the peace agreement that ended the Tigray War. 

Peace efforts: 

In 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made a trip to Eritrea to formalize the border between the two states and reinforce the 2000 peace agreement. This was a major step for peace in the region, ending a long history of conflict between the two states. Abiy was the first Ethiopian leader to visit Eritrea since the start of the border war, and was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in ending the conflict. However, there have been concerns about human rights abuses and freedom of the press, despite the progress made both domestically and internationally. Once the Tigray War began, there were numerous attempts to negotiate a settlement. The African Union (AU) played a major role in negotiations, and acted as a mediator in the final peace process. While peace remains elusive for the people of Ethiopia, the peace accord with the TPLF has been a relative success. It has ended fighting, and the government removed the TPLF from a list of terrorist organizations. Concerns still remain about the presence of Eritrean troops and the availability of humanitarian aid, however so far the peace agreement has held and fighting in Tigray has ended. The government is also negotiating with the Oromo Liberation Army, with hopes of ending that group’s decades-long insurgency. The recent outbreak of fighting in Amhara is concerning, and there is a clear need for peace in Ethiopia. Hopefully the peaceful resolution of the Tigray War provides a catalyst for an end to fighting, but it must be accompanied by a commitment to peace from all involved actors, and genuine effort to protect human rights and ensure free access to humanitarian aid.