The volume and nature of conflicts and peace mediation efforts that attempt to resolve them are changing. In terms of conflicts, the world has recorded a significant growth in their number of in recent years, with a total of 56 conflicts in 2024 – the most since World War II. Also, inter-state conflicts, which many considered a relic of the 20th Century, are clearly back, highlighted by the war in Ukraine. At the same time, there is a notable shift in international mediation, reflecting changing power dynamics and the rise of emerging powers vying for recognition and influence. This is reflected by a transformation in conflict mediation once dominated by Western powers and the United States in particular. Today, states such as China, Russia, Turkey and several Gulf states, amongst others, are much more actively involved in international conflict mediation.
The rise of emerging powers involved in peace mediation was the topic of a panel titled Emerging Powers in Mediation: The New Landscape of International Conflict Resolution, at the 2024 PeaceCon conference in Washington D.C. on Tuesday September 10, 2024. The discussion in this panel highlighted how new emerging actors are often powers that are from the region where the conflict is occurring and, in some cases, aligned with particular sides in the conflict, which can complicate the traditional role of a mediator as a neutral actor. While there is clearly competition between emerging mediators, panelists also pointed out that different mediating countries brought different models of mediation with different tools, which could be a better fit for different conflict scenarios and the needs of the situation.
Nimet Beriker, a Lecturer at Columbia University, pointed out that for Turkiye and Gulf states who are increasingly involved in multiple international negotiations, there were advantages in working with Muslim-majority countries due to a common religious philosophy. This was a clear contrast and advantage versus former colonial powers who had previously played a central role in earlier mediation efforts. Furthermore, negotiations were often not just about the process, but also about the context enabled by the actors involved. Middle powers such as Turkiye had to rely on relational power due to a lack of material resources associated with great powers. As such, the role of identity and cultural understanding was central – something that Western-led mediation had not always fully appreciated.
According to Andrea Prah, Senior Researcher at African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), South Africa mediation style is based on its own history which began after the African National Congress (ANC) gained power in the early 1990s. The approach began after a series of consultations with African leaders, which led to its eventual endorsement by The Organization of African Unity (the predecessor to African Union). The South African approach had a strong emphasis on reconciliation – an approach championed by former ANC leader Nelson Mandela. The approach was central to South Africa’s own Truth and Reconciliation Commission which sought restorative justice for South African following decades of injustice under the Apartheid system. According to Prah, it is important to have compromise and inclusion of actors with constituents that are part of future society. A such, to make peace, it is important to not just talk to your friends, but also those who are rivals and even enemies.
