Azerbaijan recently captured the semi-autonomous Nagorno-Karabakh region following a military operation on September 20, 2023, in what appears to be the final chapter in a long-running conflict over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The dispute has a significant ethnic dimension – Nagorno-Karabakh had a majority Armenian population despite being located within Azerbaijan. The modern-day conflict began in 1988 during the slow breakdown of the Soviet Union, and fighting broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 1992. That war lasted until 1994, when Russia brokered a ceasefire. Thousands of soldiers and civilians were killed and hundreds of thousands of civilians were displaced.
After the ceasefire, Armenian forces occupied the Azerbaijani territory surrounding the internationally unrecognized Republic of Artsakh for over 25 years. In 2020, following decades of intermittent clashes, a full-scale conflict broke out once again. Azerbaijan retook much of the territory that had been occupied in the previous war, after a military modernization program which gave it military superiority. Civilians were often caught in the crossfire, with shelling of civilian areas and the usage of cluster munitions. A new ceasefire brokered by Russia, which included the presence of Russian peacekeepers, lasted until 2023, when Azerbaijan initially blockaded the region before launching a September 20 military operation, which led to a quick surrender of the authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh, with neither Russian peacekeepers nor Armenian forces intervening.
Following the Azerbaijani victory, a humanitarian crisis has unfolded in Nagorno-Karabakh with much of the population determined to leave. Azerbaijan has publicly stated that Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh could stay with no changes besides accepting Azerbaijani citizenship. However, due to the long history of distrust, with multiple instances of ethnic cleansing, most Armenians have chosen to leave their homes. Exact numbers are hard to find but some estimates place the figure at over half of the region’s Armenian population at week after the military victory.
Many critics around the world accuse the Azerbiajan government of another Armenian Genocide, as the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has involved an economic blockade on civilians and the use of force allegedly aimed at ethnic cleansing. Azerbaijan is an important geopolitical player in Eurasia, having become an important energy supplier to Europe after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The European Union has attempted to mediate between the two sides, however, critics view the efforts as insufficient, and a prioritization of energy needs over human rights.
In our past video on the conflict, a variety of experts on the region and the conflict spoke about the difficulty of finding the space to actually talk about peace. The longstanding tensions, and the history of violence , had stigmatized the idea of working for peace. The violent nature of the latest events, and the concerning and ongoing refugee crisis, suggests that past peace efforts have failed. In order to avert more mass suffering and further violence, dialogue and peace talks on meeting humanitarian needs and avoiding future violence are urgently needed. While authorities in Azerbaijan have indicated that Armenians can live freely, practice their religion, and retain their cultural identity, as long as they acceptAzerbaijani citizenship, those statements must be backed by action on the ground. Many in the region are traumatized due to past violence, inflammatory statements, and the blockade over most of 2023 that has caused significant civilian suffering.
Peace News spoke with Professor Margaret Tadevosyan, an expert at George Mason University’s Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution, who stated:
“I believe that the risk of future military escalation in the region remains high. The major outstanding point of this [November 9] agreement is the “opening of all communications in the region,” which Azerbaijan refers to as the “Zangezur corridor.” Given the recent military escalation, the ambiguous international response, strains in Russian-Armenian relations, internal political processes that are unfolding in Armenia, and Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan, it is possible that Azerbaijan will try to “open” the corridor” by force if no tangible agreement on this issue is reached.”
This would mean that the larger war may still have another chapter, with Azerbaijan feeling confident due to its military superiority and the lack of international support for Armenia to date. According to Tadevosyan, “although we have seen slightly more direct statements from Germany and the United States regarding the recent escalations, and Azerbaijan’s leadership has also made promising statements about not considering a forceful opening of the corridor, a consistent and strong international engagement is necessary to ensure a non-return to violence in the region.”
Given recent events, Tadevosyan concludes that long-term positive peace in the region is unlikely in the foreseeable future. Instead, “[w]hat we have now is a “victor’s peace,” which has been the default way that peace was and is still constructed in all of the South Caucasus conflict contexts. The potential for genuine prospects of lasting peace will strongly depend on how the Azerbaijani government chooses to treat the regained Nagorno-Karabakh territory. If it is completely stripped of the Armenian cultural heritage then any possibility of discussing long-term positive peace in the region will be lost. However, if Armenian cultural heritage is acknowledged, respected and protected, it will send a powerful and positive signal and will leave a window of opportunity open for possible meaningful engagement and peacebuilding work in the future.”
Peace News will continue to cover this issue as it unfolds, including in our weekly series This Week in Peace. You can also subscribe to our monthly newsletter to get updates on all our stories as well.
Expert interviewed: Margarita Tadevosyan
Leo Weakland
Leo Weakland graduated from the George Washington University in 2023 with a Bachelor of Arts in International Affairs. He is the Development and Operations Manager for Peace News Network, and is based in Washington, D.C. Before Peace News, he worked as a Research Assistant at GWU, for a nonprofit focused on supporting veterans running for office, and interned at the Office of the General Counsel at the Centers for Disease Control.
