This week, peace in South Sudan remains under threat, renwed peace talks between Israel and Hamas appeared initially promising but saw no tangible progress so far, and Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to inch towards a final peace deal.
Peace talks in South Sudan face further threats
The past month has seen continued threats to peace in South Sudan. A few weeks ago, we reported on threats to a landmark peace deal which ended years of destructive civil war. One of the parties to that deal has objected to ongoing talks in Kenya between the government and rebel groups not included in the 2018 agreement. Those talks have now come under threat themselves, as participants object to the recent passage of a national security bill that would permit warrantless detention. The country is heading towards its first democratic election, which has been pushed back numerous times but is currently scheduled for December. The peace talks have resulted in a draft which calls to delay the election further, in order to fully implement the 2018 deal, finalize South Sudan’s constitutions, and ensure it is free and fair. However, President Salva Kiir insists that the election must go forward as scheduled, and if he maintains this position and signs the new security law, South Sudan may find peace far more difficult to achieve.
Israel and Hamas re-engage, in a familiar and unproductive cycle
The past week has seen renewed diplomatic engagement between Israel and Hamas, as they attempt to negotiate a ceasefire to at least temporarily end Israel’s nine-month war in Gaza. However, a familiar cycle is taking place, where reports emerge that a deal is close, only for the talks to drag on without resolution, as the two sides fail to come to any sort of agreement on whether a ceasefire would end the war or merely delay it. The question of who will rule post-war Gaza is also an issue, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to agree to a deal that allows Hamas to retain power. The divide between Netanyahu and Hamas over the potential future resumption of the war remains – Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire, while Netanyahu, who has refused to fully back a proposed ceasefire framework opposed by extremist members of his government, wants the option to resume fighting at any time. However, there is some hope that if this issue can be resolved, a ceasefire can be implemented for the first time since November. With near-unanimous global support for an end to the fighting, which is backed even by Israel’s military leadership, and the willingness of Hamas to negotiate, it is essential that a final agreement be found soon, as Palestinian civilians continue to suffer the most from the ongoing war.
US optimistic about a deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan
After meeting with the foreign ministers of both countries during the NATO summit taking place in Washington, DC, this week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the two countries, long at odds, are close to signing a peace agreement that would be “dignified” and “durable”. Since Azerbaijan took over the formerly disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh last year, the two countries have been engaged in ongoing negotiations, to agree on a peace deal which would end one of the most enduring post-Soviet conflicts. While the two sides have as of now been unable to reach a final agreement, the talks remain on a positive trajectory. They have been largely bilateral, but engagement from international actors, including the US, could help aid the talks. A final agreement would be important both to prevent further fighting between the two neighbors, and potentially lead to greater regional integration as well – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a close ally of Azerbaijan, has stated he would be willing to normalize relations with Armenia if a peace treaty is signed, which would be a historic move considering the high tensions between the two states, driven by ongoing Turkish denial of the Armenian Genocide.
